Posted at 29 October 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup:
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 1.6%,12.0% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q3) -0.1%,8.1% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q3) 5.3%, 6.5% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.0%,2.7% forecast, 6.7% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 4.50%,4.50% forecast, 6.10% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 5.7%,5.5% forecast, 6.2% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 281K,290K forecast, 290K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 299.25K,319.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 2,243K,2,415K forecast, 2,481K previous
•US Sep Pending Home Sales Index 116.7,119.5 previous
•US Sep Pending Home Sales (MoM) -2.3%, 0.5% forecast, 8.1% previous
•US Oct KC Fed Composite Index 31,22 previous
•US Oct KC Fed Manufacturing Index 25,10 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan Oct Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) 0.2% previous
•23:50 Japan Nov Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) 6.8% previous
•23:50 Japan Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -3.2% forecast, -3.6% previous
•06:00 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.7% previous
•06:00 Australia Sep Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•06:00 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q3) 2.2% previous
•06:00 Australia Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -1.7% previous
•10:30 Japan Sep Construction Orders (YoY) -2.0% previous
•10:30 Japan Oct Household Confidence 37.8 previous
•10:30 Japan Sep Housing Starts (YoY) 7.5% forecast, 7.5% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher on Thursday as comments by the ECB President Christine Lagarde and a weaker-than-expected U.S. economic report. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde admitted on Thursday that inflation will be high for longer, but turned down market bets that price pressures would trigger an interest rate hike next year. As central banks around the world signalling tighter policies in the face of rising prices, Lagarde said the ECB had done a lot of soul searching on its stance, but concluded that inflation was still temporary so it was premature to take a policy respons . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1701(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1751(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1647 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Thursday after data showed the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in more than a year. It raced higher on Thursday to the dollar, after U.S. data emerged showing the economy expanded at 2%, its weakest rate in a year. The pound has been buffeted of late by speculation over whether the Bank of England would proceed with an interest rate hike at its Nov. 4 meeting, or hold fire, given concerns around economic growth. The dollar index fell 0.6% to the lowest in a month.By 22:00 GMT, sterling was up 0.5% to $1.3798, having earlier traded as high as $1.38150. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3813(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3859(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3771(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3734(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The loonie rose slightly against its US counterpart on Thursday as the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance helped prop up bond yields, but the currency's gains were limited by volatility in oil prices. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.2% higher at $82.81 a barrel. Earlier, it hit a two-week low as Iran said talks with world powers on its nuclear programme would resume by the end of November. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.2344 to the greenback, adding to the previous day's rally. It traded in a range of 1.2331 to 1.2382. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2361(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2378(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2315 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2252 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Thursday as weak U.S. economic growth data weighed on dollar. U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2% annualized rate last quarter, the slowest since the second quarter of 2020 when the economy was beset by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, the Commerce Department said in its advance GDP estimate on Thursday. The weak GDP figure was offset by continued improvement in U.S. jobless claims, which dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 last week, remaining below the 300,000 threshold for the third straight week. Strong resistance can be seen at 113.78 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 113.96(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 113.32(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 112.88(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday, buoyed by robust earnings from food and technology stocks, as the European Central Bank kept its massive stimulus taps open and maintained its view that a recent spike in inflation would be temporary.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.75 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq boasting record closing levels thanks partly to gains in Apple and Amazon, while solid results from companies including Caterpillar and Merck helped ease concerns about slowing economic growth denting profits.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.69% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.98% percent, Nasdaq settledup by 1.39%percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Thursday, as investors shrugged off weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth data and focused instead on the inflation components of the report, as well as a solid jobless claims number.
U.S. yield curves flattened again amid heightened expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next year, with the gap between 5-year and 30-year yields narrowing to 73.4 basis points, its tightest since March 2020.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as demand for the safe-haven asset was lifted by a softer dollar and data showing the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in more than a year.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,801.43 per ounce by 2:05 pm ET (1805 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled up 0.2% at $1,802.6.
Oil prices dipped on Thursday but settled off two-week lows as concerns about U.S. supply growth vied with speculation that Iran's supply could come online following nuclear talks with global powers.
Brent crude settled down 26 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $84.32 a barrel. During the session it hit a two-week low of $82.32 after falling 2.1% on Wednesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $82.81. During the session the contract touched a two-week low of $80.58.