Posted at 25 June 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US May Personal Income (MoM) -2.0%,-2.5% forecast,-13.1% previous
•US May Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.4%,3.4% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US May PCE Price index (YoY) 3.9,3.6 previous
•US May Personal Spending (MoM) 0.0%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US May Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -0.4%,-0.1% previous
•US May Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US May PCE price index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.6% previous
•US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 85.5, 86.4 forecast, 82.9 previous
•US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 83.5, 83.8 forecast, 78.8 previous
•US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.2%,4.0% forecast, 4.6% previous
•US Jun Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.80%,2.80% forecast,3.00% previous
•US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 88.6, 90.7 forecast, 89.4 previous
•US May Dallas Fed PCE 88.6, 2.40% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro initially gained against dollar on Friday but gave up ground after data showed that U.S. consumer spending was flat in May, while producer price inflation came in below economists’ expectations. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two thirds of US economic activity in the US economy remained stable after an upward revised increase of 0.9% in April. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5%, below economists’ expectations of a 0.6% increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1956(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2010 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1914 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.882 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was lower on Friday, heading for its worst month against the dollar since September after the Bank of England left its policy unchanged. The Bank of England kept its stimulus package at the same level, leaving its key rate at a record low of 0.1% on Thursday. It also said that if the UK economy reopens, inflation would top 3% but rise above its 2% target would be temporary. Sterling fell 0.25% against the dollar to $1.3907, on track for its worst month against the greenback since September 2020.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3932 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3998 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3877 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3836(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The loonie was lower against its US counterpart on Friday as investors continued to accept more hawkish guidance from the Federal Reserve and the loonie returned some of this week's gains. Oil, one of Canada's top exports, posted a fifth straight week of gains on expectations that demand growth will outstrip supply. Crude oil futures closed 1% higher at $ 74.05 a barrel on Friday. The Canadian dollar traded 0.2% higher at 1.2300 versus the green, or 81.30 cents, after trading in a range of 2271-1.2329. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2704 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2733 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2657 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped against Japanese yen on Friday but recovered some ground after data showed that U.S. consumer spending was flat in May, while producer price inflation came in below economists’ expectations.The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5% after advancing 0.7% in April. In the 12 months through May, the so-called core PCE price index shot up 3.4%, the largest gain since April 1992. The core PCE price index rose 3.1% on a year-on-year basis in April. The greenback dipped 0.02% versus the Japanese yen to $1.110.78.Strong resistance can be seen at 110.81 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.38(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.65 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 110.35 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares stayed just below record highs on Friday, with a boost from the financial and materials sectors, while Credit Suisse rose after a Reuters report that it was considering a potential merger with UBS.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.13 percent.
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Friday, boosted by gains in Nike and bank stocks, while weaker-than-expected inflation data eased worries about a sudden tapering in stimulus by the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.75% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.35% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.04% percent.
Treasuries Recap
The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury jumped above 1.50% Friday to close out a week in which yields notched their largest weekly gains since March.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.5377%, while shorter-term 2-year Treasury yields edged up to 0.4812%. Long duration 30-year Treasury yields rose to 2.1723%.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Friday after dull US inflation data eased bets on an early Federal Reserve tightening policy
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $1,782.46 per ounce at 10:53 a.m. EDT (1453 GMT), adding over 1% for the week thus far. U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $1,782.80.
Oil prices climbed to their highest since October 2018 on Friday, putting both benchmarks up for a fifth week in a row on expectations demand growth will outstrip supply and OPEC+ will be cautious in returning more crude to the market from August.
Brent futures rose 62 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $76.18 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 75 cents, or 1.0%, to $74.05.