Posted at 17 June 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Fed projects rate hikes in 2023 in policy statement
• Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) 2.7%,2.3% previous
• Canada Median CPI (YoY) 2.4%,2.3% previous
• Canada Common CPI (YoY) 1.8%, 1.5% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) 11.3%,10.6% previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) 17.4%,14.4% previous
• US Apr Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.4% ,-0.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US May Building Permits 1.681M, 1.730M forecast, 1.733M previous
• US May Building Permits (MoM) -3.0%k, -1.3% previous
• US May Housing Starts1.572M, 1.630M forecast, 1.569M previous
• Canada May Core CPI (YoY) 2.8%, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Canada CPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US May Housing Starts (MoM) 3.6%,-9.5% previous
• Canada May Core CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.4%,0.5% previous
• US May Export Price Index (MoM) 2.2%,0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
• US May Import Price Index (MoM) 1.1%,0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Gasoline Inventories 1.954M,-0.614M forecast, 7.046M previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -7.355M.-3.290M forecast, -5.241M previous
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25%, 0.25% forecast, 0.25% previous
• 23:30 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying previous 94.5B previous
• 23:30 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying previous 665.9B previous
•1:30 Australia May Full Employment Change 33.8K previous
•1:30 Australia May Participation Rate 66.1% forecast , 66.0% previous
•1:30 Australia May Unemployment Rate 5.5% forecast , 5.5% previous
•1:30 Australia May Employment Change 30.0K forecast , -30.6K previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•00:10 Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023, citing an improved health situation and dropping a long-standing reference that the crisis was weighing on the economy. A majority of 11 Fed officials penciled in at least two quarter-point interest rate increases for 2023, even as officials in their statement pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery. The euro was down at five-week lows of $1.1995 having shed 1.1% overnight, the sharpest fall since March 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2-54 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2112 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1961(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1847(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined sharply against dollar on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve stunned investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending the dollar sharply higher. The Fed rubbed salt into the wound by signalling it would now be considering whether to taper its asset purchases meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress in vaccination. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4010(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4010(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3944 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3934 (9DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened by the most in four months against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes, closing the gap between it and the Bank of Canada. Fed policymakers at the median now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024, while the central bank opened the debate on when and how it may be appropriate to start tapering its massive bond-buying program. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.7% lower at 1.2277 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2315 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2362 (May 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2255(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2201(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Wednesday after Fed signaled higher rates in 2023. In its new projections, 11 out of 18 Fed officials projected at least two quarter-point interest rate increases for 2023, even as officials in their statement pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery. The central bank however held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.33 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.57 (April 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.75(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 109.28 (50% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at a record high on Wednesday, despite caution ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could see it outline plans to start stimulus unwinding.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.20 percent.
The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.77 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.54 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.24 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields shot up on Wednesday after Federal Reserve policymakers moved up their projections for commencing interest rates hikes to 2023 from 2024 as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 5.6 basis points at 1.555%, its highest level in a week.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped over 1% on Wednesday after U.S Federal Reserve officials brought forward projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023.
Spot gold fell 1.1% to $1,839.06 per ounce by 2:42 pm EDT (1842 GMT), having earlier hit its lowest level since May 14 at $1,833.65.
Oil prices rose for a fifth day on Wednesday, closing in on $75 a barrel as U.S. refiners drew more crude inventories to ramp up activity and meet recovering demand.
Crude inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels in the week to June 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, as refining utilization rose to 92.6%, highest since January 2020, before the pandemic hit.