Posted at 12 April 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Eurozone Feb Retail Sales (YoY) -2.9%,-5.4% forecast, -6.4% previous
•Eurozone Feb Retail Sales (MoM) 3.0%,1.5% forecast, -5.9% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.632% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.625% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction-0.621% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 0.020% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 0.035% previous
•17:00 US 10-Year Note Auction 1.523% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• 13:00 UK MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
• 13:00 Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
•17:00 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as markets bided their time in a key week for U.S. Treasury markets. U.S. Treasury yields, which have stabilised in the past two weeks after a sharp rise, could get a fresh steer from auctions $96 billion of three and 10-year bonds will be sold on Monday and key inflation data on Tuesday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.1% to 92.275 while the euro gained 0.16% to $1.1916. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1930 (8th April high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1950(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1860 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1835(9DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Monday as some UK lockdown measures were eased, recovering some of last week’s losses, but analysts cautioned that the boost to sterling from being ahead in the vaccine race could be shortlived as other countries catch up. England’s shops, pubs, gyms and hairdressers reopened after three months of lockdown. The UK’s vaccine rollout one of the fastest in the world - helped the pound have its best quarter since 2015 in the first three months of 2021.The pound was up around 0.4% against the dollar $1.3765. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3768 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808 (21DMA ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3667 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3587 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Monday as traders assessed the outlook for Treasury yields, while awaiting crucial U.S. inflation and retail sales data in coming days. The dollar’s fortunes have been tied to the performance of Treasury yields for most of 2021, after concerns about rising inflation in the United States and a stimulus-fuelled economic rebound triggered a significant jump in yields on U.S. government bonds in February. Investors are now waiting for U.S. March inflation data due on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9268(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9279(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9221 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9155 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Monday as investors waited to see whether U.S. earnings would justify sky-high valuations, while a rally in bonds could be tested by what should be strong readings for U.S. inflation and retail sales this week. Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy was about to start growing faster, though the coronavirus remained a threat. Data out this week are expected to show U.S. inflation jumped in March. Retail sales are seen surging, perhaps even with a double-digit gain. Treasury is also set to test demand with offers of $100 billion in debt this week. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.76 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.15 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.05(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 108.69(25th March Low).
Equities Recap
European stocks eased from all-time highs on Monday as investors held off from making big bets ahead of the earnings season, while British retailers reopened as the economy emerges from a strict winter lockdown.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, denting the appeal of bullion, while investors waited for this week's key U.S. inflation and retail sales data.
Spot gold was 0.1% down at $1,741.80 an ounce by 1147 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,743.50.
Oil prices rose on Monday on optimism over a rebound in the U.S. economy as coronavirus vaccinations accelerated and on tensions in the Middle East, though rising COVID-19 cases elsewhere kept a lid on prices.
Brent was up 86 cents, or 1.4%, at $63.81 a barrel by 1121 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude rose 78 cents, or 1.3%, to $60.10.