Posted at 30 October 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German GDP (YoY) (Q3) -4.1%,-5.2% forecast, -11.3% previous
• German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 8.2%,7.3% forecast, -9.7% previous
• Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3) -4.7%,-8.7% forecast, -18.0% previous
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 16.1%, 11.2% forecast, -13.0% previous
•Portuguese CPI (YoY -0.1%,-0.1% previous
•Portuguese CPI (MoM) 0.1%,1.0% previous
• Portuguese GDP (YoY) (Q3) -5.8%,-16.5% previous
•EU Sep Unemployment Rate 8.3%,8.3% forecast, 8.1% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) -0.3%,-0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•EU Oct HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU Oct Italian CPI (YoY) -0.3%,-0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
•EU Oct Italian HICP (YoY) -0.6%,-0.8% forecast, -0.5% previous
•EU Oct CPI, n.s.a 105.15, 104.97 previous
•Italian Oct HICP (MoM) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, -1.3% previous
•Italian Oct CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) 0.2%,0.2% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.1% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) 12.7%,9.4% forecast, -11.8% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3) -4.3%,-7.0% forecast, -14.7% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices -0.80% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) -10.7% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices -1.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Personal Income (MoM) 0.4%,-2.7% previous
•12:30 US Sep Personal Spending (MoM) 1.0%,1.0% previous
•12:30 US Sep Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Sep RMPI (MoM) 3.2% previous
•12:30 US Sep IPPI (YoY) -2.3% previous
•12:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q3) 0.40% previous
•12:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.80% previous
•12:30 US Sep PCE Price index (YoY) 1.4 previous
•12:30 US Sep PCE price index (MoM) 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.7%forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug GDP (MoM) 0.9% forecast,3.0% previous
•13:30 Brazil Sep Budget Balance -96.000B forecast,-121.880B previous
•13:30 Brazil Sep Budget Surplus -74.200B forecast, -87.590B previous
•13:45 US Oct Chicago PMI 58.0 forecast, 62.4 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Inflation Expectations 2.7% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.40% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 84.9 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 78.8 previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 81.2 forecast, 81.2 previous
•15:00 Canada Aug Budget Balance -28.23B previous
•15:00 Canada Aug Budget Balance (YoY) -148.58B previous
•16:00 Sep US Sep Dallas Fed PCE 2.60% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro held near four-week low against the greenback on Friday after the European Central Bank signalled further monetary easing by the end of the year. The ECB kept interest rates steady on Thursday but committed to contain the growing fallout from a second wave of coronavirus infections, saying it would hone its response by its December meeting, as widely expected by the market. The euro was little changed at $1.1676, taking a pause after hitting a four-week low of $1.1650 in U.S. trade overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1689 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1738 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1637 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1600 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded in tight ranges on Friday, pinned near the $1.29 mark against the dollar as a lack of news around on-going Brexit trade deal negotiations left investors reluctant to bet big on the currency. Britain resumed talks with the European Union over a post-Brexit trade agreement this week. Fisheries and rules governing state subsidies are the two critical issues in the negotiations, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday. By 11:30 GMT, sterling was up 0.35% against the dollar at $1.2972.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2983 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3019 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2925 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2869 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Friday as uncertainties over upcoming U.S. election and coronavirus infections globally increased appetite for dollar. The White House virus task force warned aggressive steps will be needed to curb the outbreak, with the U.S. breaking its single-day record for new infections on Thursday. Europe has moved back to the centre of the global pandemic, with Germany and France ordering a second lockdown to curb the spread of infections. The U.S. presidential election is set for Nov. 3 and opinion polls show Democrat contender Joe Biden with a significant edge nationally, but with a tighter lead in the battleground states that play a decisive role in the final result. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9187 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9230 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9148 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9117 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Friday as uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election supported dollar. Global coronavirus cases rose by more than 500,000 for the first time on Wednesday, as France and Germany implemented fresh lockdowns. Meanwhile, the White House coronavirus task force urged tough countermeasures as at least nine states reported record daily increases in new infections on Thursday. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.71 (9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.94 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.50 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.05 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European declined on Friday, putting them on track for their sharpest weekly decline since a brutal selloff in March, as a new round of coronavirus lockdowns weighed on economic growth expectations..
At (GMT 12:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, as the dollar retreated, supported by worries of soaring coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe as well as uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,875.76 per ounce by 357 GMT, but was on track for a third straight month of declines.U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% at $1,877.
Global oil prices moved in and out of negative territory on Friday but remained on course for a second monthly fall as rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States heighten concerns over fuel consumption.
Brent crude was down 3 cents at $37.62 a barrel by 1140 GMT after touching a five-month low in the previous session. The December Brent contract expires on Friday and the January contract was trading broadly flat.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 4 cents to $36.13 after dipping to its lowest since June on Thursday. It is on track for an 11% monthly decline while Brent heads for an 8% drop.