Posted at 29 October 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 33.1%, 31.0% forecast, -31.4% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 3.7%,2.8% forecast, -2.1% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q3) 25.5%,-28.1% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 40.7%,-33.2% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q3) 3.7%, -1.6% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 3.50%, 4.00% forecast,-0.80% previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims7,756K, 7,700K forecast, 8,373K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 751K, 775K forecast, 787K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 787.75K, 811.25K previous
• EU Oct Deposit Facility Rate -0.50%, -0.50% forecast,-0.50% previous
• EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility0.25%, 0.25% previous
• EU Oct ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00%, 0.00% forecast, 0.00% previous
• US Sep Pending Home Sales (MoM) -2.2%,3.4% forecast, 8.8% previous
• US Sep Pending Home Sales Index 130.0, 132.8 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Oct Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) -0.5%forecast, -0.2% previous
• 23:30 Japan Oct Tokyo CPI (YoY) 0.2% previous
•23:30 Japan Sep Jobs/applications ratio 1.04 forecast, 1.04 previous
•23:30 Japan Sep Unemployment Rate 3.1%forecast, 3.0% previous
• 23:30 Japan Oct Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) 5.7% previous
• 23:30 Japan Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 3.2%,1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Sep Private Sector Credit (MoM) -0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q3) -0.4%-0.4%
•00:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q3) -1.2% previous
•00:30 Australia Housing Sep Credit 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currencies summary
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank clearly signalled it will provide more stimulus at its next meeting to contain the growing fallout from a second wave of coronavirus infections.. The central bank’s Governing Council left policy unchanged this time around but committed to take more action as new national lockdown measures make a double-dip recession increasingly likely for the euro zone economy. The euro fell and was trading last down 0.8% at $1.1658, its lowest since end of September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1835 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1872 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1789 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1700 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling clung to gains against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank held off on any new stimulus, as expected. The ECB kept its policy unchanged, resisting pressure to introduce fresh stimulus amid a surge of coronavirus cases across Europe, but hinted at providing more support in December. The pound versus a stronger dollar was down 0.1% on the day, after earlier falling to a 10-day low of $1.2901 as risk aversion swept markets this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2916 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2970 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2906 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2845(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD The Canadian dollar was little changed against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart as stronger-than-expected U.S. data offset worries about rising coronavirus infections, with the currency rebounding from an earlier four-week low. Data showed the U.S. economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter and that weekly unemployment claims fell last week, helping Wall Street rebound after a more than 3% slide a day earlier. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil. The Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3315 to the greenback, or 75.10 U.S. cents. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3336 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3383 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3270 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Thursday as lack of clarity on a U.S. stimulus agreement and concerns over a spike in COVID-19 cases boosted demand for dollar. Ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads Trump nationally, but the competition is tighter in swing states. Meanwhile, data showed the U.S. economy grew at an unrivalled pace in the third quarter and weekly unemployment claims fell more than expected in the latest week. The Japanese yen weakened 0.30% versus the greenback at 104.61 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.73 (9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.92 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.49 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 104.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended a volatile Thursday weaker, hitting session lows after the European Central Bank left its ultra-easy policy unchanged and hinted at more support in December.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0,32 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.03 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the technology heavyweights rallying ahead of major earnings reports and upbeat domestic economic data calming investor jitters about surging coronavirus cases.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.52 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.19percent, Nasdaq was up by 1.64% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Longer-dated Treasury yields rose faster than those at the short end on Thursday afternoon, steepening the yield curve as the stock market retraced some earlier losses.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 5 basis points to 0.831%, while the two-year yield was roughly unchanged at 0.153%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped to one-month lows on Thursday, hurt by a stronger dollar and lack of clarity on a U.S. stimulus agreement, while concerns over a spike in COVID-19 cases and uncertainty ahead of U.S. elections limited losses.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,869.94 per ounce by 11:57 a.m. EDT (1557 GMT), having earlier slipped to its lowest since Sept. 28 at $1,858.92.
U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,869.90.oncerns over a spike in COVID-19 cases and uncertainty ahead of U.S. elections limited losses.
Oil prices tumbled by more than 4% on Thursday, dropping to a five-month low and extending the previous day’s sharp decline on the impact renewed coronavirus lockdowns could have on oil demand.
Brent crude futures were down $1.66, or 4.2%, at $37.45 by 12:34 EST (1634 GMT), after earlier dropping as far as $36.64, the lowest in five months. The more active January contract lost 4% to $38.02 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were $1.50, or 4%, lower at $35.89, having touched their lowest since mid-June at $34.92.