Posted at 01 October 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Sep CPI (YoY) -0.8%,-0.7% forecast, -0.9% previous
• Swiss Sep CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Swiss Aug Retail Sales (YoY) 2.5%,4.1% previous
•Spanish Sep Manufacturing PMI 50.8, 50.7 forecast, 49.9 previous
•Italian Sep Manufacturing PMI 53.2, 53.5 forecast, 53.1 previous
•French Sep Manufacturing PMI 51.2, 50.9 forecast, 49.8 previous
•German Sep Manufacturing PMI 56.4, 56.6 forecast, 52.2 previous
•Italian Aug Monthly Unemployment Rate 9.7% , 9.1% forecast, 9.7% previous
•EU Sep Manufacturing PMI 53.7, 53.7 forecast, 51.7 previous
•UK Sep Manufacturing PMI 54.1, 54.3 forecast, 55.2 previous
•EU Aug PPI (YoY) -2.5%,-2.7% forecast, -3.3% previous
•EU Aug PPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU Aug Unemployment Rate 8.1%, 8.1% forecast, 7.9% previous
•US Sep Challenger Job Cuts 118.804K, 115.762K previous
•US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 185.9%,116.5% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 867.25K, 878.25K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 837K, 850K forecast, 870K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 11,767K, 12,225K forecast, 12,580K previous
•US Canada Aug Building Permits (MoM) 1.7%, 5.5% forecast, -3.0% previous
•US Aug Personal Income (MoM) -2.7%,-2.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.6%,1.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Aug Personal Spending (MoM) 1.0%,0.8% forecast, 1.9% previous
•US Aug PCE price index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% previous
•US Aug PCE Price index (YoY ) 1.4, 1.0 previous
•US Aug Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.7%, 1.6% previous
•Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD) 580.7B, 590.9B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data
•13:45 Sep Manufacturing PMI 53.5 forecast, 53.1 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Manufacturing Prices 58.6 forecast, 59.5 previous
•14:00 US Aug Construction Spending (MoM) 0.8% forecast, 0.1% previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment 45.8 forecast, 46.4 previous
•14:00 US Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 forecast, 56.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug Dallas Fed PCE 2.00% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•13:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
•15:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•15:45 ECB's Lane Speaks
•19:00 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as upbeat Eurozone Sep Manufacturing PMI data boosted euro. The recovery in euro zone manufacturing activity gathered pace last month but it was largely driven by strength in powerhouse Germany, and rising coronavirus cases across the region may yet reverse the upturn, a survey showed. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index to 53.7 in September from August’s 51.7, in line with an earlier flash reading and its highest level since August 2018.Anything above 50 indicates growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1771 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1791 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1711 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1683 (30th Sep low).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially dipped on Thursday, but reversed course after a Financial Times reporter tweeted that officials in London were more optimistic of a post-Brexit EU deal after the latest round of talks. Sterling fell after a Reuters report that British and EU trade negotiators have failed to bridge their differences on state aid. But it reversed its losses after a FT reporter tweeted at 1107 GMT that a landing zone for state aid has been identified and that fishing remains the last sticking point. At 1152 GMT it was up 0.3% on the day versus the dollar at $1.2965. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2977 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3019 (30 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2855 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2800 (5DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as robust U.S. data and hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus left investors confident enough to seek out other currencies. Republican President Donald Trump’s administration has proposed a coronavirus stimulus package to House Democrats worth more than $1.5 trillion, and hopes are rising that both parties will reach a compromise. At the same time, jobs figures that showed U.S. private employers stepped up hiring more than forecast last month and that Midwest manufacturing grew faster than expected also fed into the optimism. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9198 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9215 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9151 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9132 (30DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Thursday as mounting uncertainty ahead of America’s presidential election increased demand for yen. Market participants remained cautious after Tuesday’s chaotic presidential debate, which heightened fears that a disputed ballot on Nov. 3 could lead to a long and messy transfer of power.President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden talked over each other and traded insults as they sparred over the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare and the economy. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.62 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.22 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 105.59 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Thursday as Swedish retailer H&M and French-Italian chipmaker STMicroelectronics jumped after reporting forecast-beating results, while hopes of more U.S. stimulus aided global sentiment.
At (GMT 13:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose close to the $1,900 mark on Thursday, boosted by an easing dollar and increased investor confidence that there will be further U.S. fiscal stimulus measures to aid the virus-beaten economy.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,896.78 per ounce by 1002 GMT, having ended September 4.3% lower, in its biggest monthly drop since November 2016.U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $1,901.70 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases dampened the demand outlook, with further price pressure from a rise in OPEC output last month, though losses were capped by renewed hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus.
Brent crude futures fell 17, or 0.4%, to $42.13 a barrel by 0818 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 22 cents, or 0.6%, at $40.