Posted at 21 August 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 3.6%,2.0% forecast, 13.9% previous
•UK Jul Public Sector Net Borrowing 25.94B, 29.30B forecast, 34.80B previous
•UK Jul Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 16.491B, 44.033B previous
•UK Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) 2.0%,0.2% forecast, 13.5% previous
•UK Jul Core Retail Sales (YoY) 3.1%,1.5% forecast, 1.7% previous
•UK Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 1.4% , 0.1% forecast, -1.6% previous
•French Aug Markit Composite PMI 51.7, 57.2 forecast, 57.3 previous
•French Aug French Services PMI 51.9, 56.3 forecast, 57.3 previous
•French Aug French Manufacturing PMI 49.0, 53.7 forecast, 52.4 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 53.0, 52.5 forecast, 51.0 previous
•German Aug German Services PMI 50.8, 55.1 forecast, 55.6 previous
•German Aug German Composite PMI 53.7, 55.0 forecast, 55.3 previous
•EU Aug Markit Composite PMI 51.6, 54.9 forecast, 54.9 previous
•EU Aug Services PMI 50.1, 54.5 forecast, 54.7 previous
•EU Aug Manufacturing PMI 51.7, 52.9 forecast, 51.8 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 55.3, 53.8 forecast, 53.3 previous
•UK Services PMI 60.1, 57.0 forecast, 56.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI 60.3, 57.1 forecast, 57.0 previous
•UK Aug CBI Industrial Trends Orders -44, -35 forecast, -46 previous
• Canada June Retail Sales (MoM) 23.7%, 24.5% forecast ,18.7% previous
• Canada Jul New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast , 0.1% previous
• Canada Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) 15.7%, 15.0% forecast, 10.6% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•13:45 US Manufacturing PMI 51.9 forecast, 50.9 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 51.0m, 50.0 previous
•13:45 US Markit Composite PMI 50.3 previous
•14:00 EU Aug Consumer Confidence -15.0 forecast, -15.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14.7% forecast,20.7% previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales 5.38M forecast, 4.72M previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as an August batch of business surveys pointed to a stuttering economic recovery. Flash euro zone manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) numbers for August were worse than expected. IHS Markit’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a good gauge of economic health, sank to 51.6 from July’s final reading of 54.9.The single currency, which had been falling before the results were released, extended losses and dropped as much as 0.6% to $1.1784 , a one-week low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1809 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1925 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1759 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705 (50 %fib).
GBP/USD The pound declined against dollar on Friday as a mix of Brexit worries and better-than-expected British economic data injected some volatility in the currency. Year-on-year sales rose instead of falling as in the previous month while economists polled had predicted no growth. Month-on-month numbers also rose higher than expectations, though not as much as June.Earlier in the day the pound rose against the greenback after UK retail sales numbers for July came in much higher than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3195 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3246 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3100 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2990 (38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Friday, after less dovish-than-expected minutes from last month’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting lifted the greenback off a two-year low. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes released on Wednesday prompted dollar bears to buy into the heavily shorted currency, fueling its biggest one-day surge in more than two months. Bears have reaped rich returns from shorting the greenback in recent weeks as the United States has struggled to tame the coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented policy stimulus unleashed by the Fed had darkened the outlook for the safe-haven dollar. At (GMT 12:20), greenback edged higher 0.57% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9127. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9140 (2Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9165 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9054 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen Friday after a rise in U.S. jobless claims and a dip in Treasury yields dampened the appeal of holding the greenback. A larger-than-expected rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims came just one day after Fed officials warned that a recovery in hiring is starting to slow, raising doubts about how quickly the world’s largest economy will bounce back from the coronavirus. Concern about the U.S. economy, combined with an excess supply of dollars already in circulation due to the Fed’s massive quantitative easing, are likely to weigh on the U.S. currency in coming weeks. Strong resistance can be seen at 106.13 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.79 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.52 (38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 104.58(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Friday ahead of business activity data that could throw light on the pace of economic recovery in the continent, while a stronger pound dragged UK’s exporter-heavy FTSE 100 lower.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.00 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.24 percent, France’s CAC was down 1.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Friday as the dollar edged higher, denting bullion’s appeal and setting it on track for a second weekly decline, while lingering concerns over the path to recovery from the coronavirus limited losses.
Spot gold was down 0.5% to $1,933.85 per ounce at 0949 GMT, while U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,940.00 per ounce.
Oil prices edged lower on Friday but held near a five-month high as an easing of coronavirus lockdowns aids a slow recovery in fuel demand while major crude producers seek to limit supply.
Brent crude futures were down 52 cents, or 1.1%, at $44.38 a barrel by 0850 GMT, heading for a 0.9% weekly decline.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 48 cents, or 1.1%, at $42.34 but on track for a weekly gain of about 0.9%.