Posted at 20 August 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Weekly jobless claims back over 1 million
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg1, 175.75K, 1,252.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 14,844K, 15,000K forecast 15,486K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 1,106K, 925K forecast, 963K previous
•Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 1,149.8K, 1,042.9K previous
•US Aug Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.2, 21.0, 24.1 previous
•US Aug Philly Fed Employment 9.0, 20.1 previous
•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index 23.00, 26.60 previous
•US Aug Philly Fed New Orders 19.0, 23.0 previous
•US Aug Philly Fed Business Conditions 38.8, 36.0 previous
•US Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid 15.30, 15.70 previous
•Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 590.2B, 600.7B previous
•Russia Jul Unemployment Rate 6.3%,1.4%,6.1% forecast ,6.2% previous
•Russia Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -2.6%,-4.8% forecast,-7.7% previous
•Russian Jun Real Wage Growth (YoY) 0.6%, 0.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•US Jul Leading Index (MoM) 1.4%,1.1%forecast,2.0% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 43B forecast, 58B previous
•Russia GDP Monthly (YoY) -4.7%,-6.4% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 0.080%, 0.100% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 0.090% ,0.080% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•23:00 Australia Manufacturing PMI 54.0 previous
•23:00 Australia Services PMI 58.2 previous
•23:30 Japan Jul CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.1% previous
•23:30 Japan National Jul Core CPI (YoY) 0.1% forecast , -0.2% previous
•23:30 Japan Jul National CPI (YoY) 0.1% previous
•23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) 0.1% previous
•00:30 Japan Aug Manufacturing PMI 45.2 previous
•00:30 Japan Services PMI 45.4 previous
•03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) -9.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currencies Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against greenback on Thursday after minutes from last month’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting gave few clues about whether an even more dovish shift in its policy framework is possible in the autumn, disappointing some dollar bulls. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed the swift rebound in employment seen in May and June had likely slowed and that additional “substantial improvement” in the labour market would hinge on a “broad and sustained” reopening of business activity.The readout on Fed discussions provides hints to further action that the U.S. central bank could take in September. No change in interest rate policy is expected until end-2021.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1925 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1807 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1778 (21DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling touched an intra-week low on Thursday but held above $1.32 as less dovish than expected minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting prompted bears to buy into the heavily shorted greenback. The Fed minutes were vague, saying a number of committee members thought a revised statement on policy strategy would be helpful at some point, without providing details or timing. They struck a cautious tone about the U.S. recovery.That was enough to push risk assets - a category recently including sterling, given that the currency weakens when deteriorating market sentiment strengthens demand for the safe-haven dollar into a likely short-lived correction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2273 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2375 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3037 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2990(38.2%bfib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors stuck to a view that the U.S. Federal Reserve would add further stimulus and as Canada announced the extension of an emergency support measure. Markets were rattled on Wednesday by minutes from last month's Federal Reserve policy meeting that were less dovish than some investors expected. But the impact was short-lived,with U.S. Treasury yields falling and a rebound in the U.S.dollar losing momentum on Thursday . The Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3173 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3276 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3286 (5 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Thursday after less dovish than expected minutes from last month’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting prompted investors to buy dollar. Also bolstering the dollar was a Labor Department report on Thursday that showed the number of Americans filing a new claim for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly to 1.106 million for the week ended Aug. 15, from the 971,000 the week before. The previous week’s level had marked the first time since March that new claims had registered below 1 million. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.78 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.78 (50% Fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.50 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks were hit by a wave of selling in global equity markets on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled a long and difficult path of recovery for the world’s largest economy.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.61 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.14 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.33 percent.
Nasdaq ended at a record high on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Dow also rising, as gains in heavyweight tech stocks outweighed downbeat data that affirmed the Federal Reserve’s view of a difficult road to economic recovery.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.17 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.32 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.06percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as higher-than-expected initial weekly unemployment claims added to worries over the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
The benchmark 10-year yield, which hit a session low of 0.638% after the jobless data was released, was last down 3.4 basis points at 0.6412%.
Commodities Recap
Gold recovered on Thursday from an over 3% slide in the last session, after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly topped one million again and the Federal Reserve minutes reiterated concerns over economic recovery.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,937.13 per ounce by 10:32 am EDT (1433 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,944.20.
Oil fell 1% on Thursday after Reuters reported OPEC+ needed to address daily oversupply of more than 2 million barrels, and the number of U.S. unemployment benefit claims rose unexpectedly, signalling a slow economic recovery.
Brent crude fell 47 cents, or 1%, to settle at $44.90 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery ended the session 35 cents, or 0.8% lower, at $42.58 a barrel on the last day of trading. The more active October WTI contract ended down 29 cents, or 0.7%, at $42.82 a barrel.