Posted at 03 February 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US job growth surges in January; wage inflation heats up
•Gold up nearly 1% for the week
•US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls 23K, 5K forecast,6K previous
•US Jan Average Weekly Hours 34.1,34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•US Jan Government Payrolls 36.0K,52.0K previous
•US Jan Private Nonfarm Payrolls 317K,155K forecast,164K previous
•US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls 353K,187K forecast,216K previous
•US Jan Unemployment Rate 3.7%,3.8% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.5%,4.1%forecast,4.1% previous
•US Jan Payrolls Benchmark -266.00 , 568.00 previous
•US Jan Participation Rate 62.5%,62.5% previous
•US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.6%, 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Jan Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a 353K ,-187.00K,-306.00K previous
•US Jan U6 Unemployment Rate 7.2%,7.1% previous
•US Dec Factory Orders (MoM) 0.2% 0.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
•US Dec Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% previous
•US Dec Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4%,0.6% previous
•US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9%,2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 77.1, 75.9 forecast,67.4 previous
•US Dec Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.4%,0.1% previous
•US Jan Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9%,2.9% forecast,3.1% previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 79.0, 78.8 forecast,69.7 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 499,499 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 619,621 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday after data showed that employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 last month, beating economists' expectations for a gain of 180,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6% after rising 0.4% in December. The dollar had weakened in recent days in line with falling Treasury yields, even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a March rate cut was unlikely. The dollar index reached 104.04, the highest since Dec. 12. The euro fell to $1.07810, holding just above the $1.07800 level reached on Thursday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0863(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0924 ( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0772(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0716(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling reversed direction on Friday as the dollar rose following US employment data, leaving the pound on track for its worst weekly drop versus the greenback in eight weeks. Data showed that U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. That sent the dollar soaring across the board, and the dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, was up 0.8%. The British currency was last down 0.79% against the dollar at $1.2643, and set for a weekly fall of 0.45%, its most in a week since early December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar slipped to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart, driven by stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data, which diminished the likelihood of the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the upcoming months. The U.S. dollar index jumped to a seven-week high after U.S. data showed that employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Preliminary domestic data on Wednesday showed Canada's economy likely expanding at an annualized rate of 1.2% in the fourth quarter. The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3460 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3491 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3528(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3430 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3336(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose higher against the yen on Friday after solid US nonfarm payrolls data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will begin decreasing interest rates soon.U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January, beating the 180,000 economists had expected. A resilient economy and strong worker productivity encouraged businesses to hire and retain more employees, a trend that could shield the economy from a recession this year. According to the CME Fed Watch, opens new tab Tool, traders now expect about a 70% chance of a U.S. rate cut in May, compared to 92% before the data. The greenback rose to 148.58 yen, just below the 148.80 level reached on Jan. 19, which was the highest since Nov. 28 . Strong resistance can be seen at 148.6(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.31 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.25(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were little changed on Friday as gains from upbeat corporate earnings offset hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs data that quashed hopes of an imminent rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Friday and the S&P 500 registered an all-time closing high as strong earnings and a blowout January employment report boosted confidence in the economy, even while lowering the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates any time soon.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.35% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.07% percent, Nasdaq settled upby 1.74 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields surged on Friday after the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report showed nearly double the job growth in January than expected, dashing hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The 10-year Treasury note was up 18.7 basis points to 4.050%, one day after reaching a new 2024 low. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 14 basis points at 4.243%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday as the dollar and yields jumped after a strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls report which created some uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates soon.
Spot gold was down 0.8% at $2,038.59 per ounce at 01:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT), but prices were up nearly 1% for the week and have held above the key $2,000 level since the start of the year.U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $2053.7.
Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data shrank the odds of imminent interest rate cuts in the world's largest economy, which could dampen crude demand.
Brent crude futures settled at $77.33 a barrel, shedding $1.37, or 1.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%.