Posted at 30 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Dec Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3%forecast,0.7%previous
•French Dec French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.0%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
• French GDP (YoY) (Q4)0.7%, 0.6% previous
• Swiss Dec Trade Balance 1.248B,2.550B forecast,3.707B previous
•French Dec Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.7% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.0%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
• French GDP (YoY) (Q4)0.7%, 0.6% previous
•Spanish Jan HICP (YoY)3.5%,3.1% forecast,3.3% previous
• Spanish Jan HICP (MoM)-0.2% ,-0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
• Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4)2.0%,1.5%forecast,1.8% previous
•Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.6%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)-0.3%, -0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.1% 0.0% forecast,0.0%previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0% -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU Jan Selling Price Expectations 4.6, 3.2 previous
•EU Jan Business Climate -0.40, -0.45 previous
•EU Jan Consumer Confidence -16.1, -16.1 forecast,-15.1 previous
•EU Jan Industrial Sentiment -9.4, -9.0 forecast,-9.2 previous
•EU Jan Services Sentiment 8.8, 8.0 forecast,8.4 previous
•EU Jan Business and Consumer Survey 96.2,96.2 forecast,96.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov House Price Index (YoY) 6.3% previous
•13:30 US Nov House Price Index (MoM)0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 5.8% forecast,4.9% previous
•13:30 US Nov House Price Index 416.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec JOLTs Job Openings 8.750M forecast, 8.790M previous
•15:00 US Jan CB Consumer Confidence 115.0 forecast,110.7 previous
•15:30 US Jan Texas Services Sector Outlook -8.7 previous
•15:30 US Jan Dallas Fed Services Revenues 4.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday after data showed the euro zone narrowly avoided a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 20 countries sharing the euro was flat in the fourth quarter against the previous three months, mainly thanks to strong growth in Spain and Portugal and a modest increase in Italy, while the German economy shrank in the final three months of 2023.The euro was edged up 0.14% at $1.0846 against the dollar, as expectations are for a stronger U.S. outlook than in the euro zone, which has led investors to fully pricing in a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0857(Jan 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0881( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound declined on Tuesday ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting this week. The BoE is expected to take a tentative first step towards cutting interest rates from their highest level in nearly 16 years on Thursday after other signs that the inflation crisis is easing off. But while the central bank might soften its message about the possibility of future cuts, investors expect no actual reduction in borrowing costs for several more months. Sterling slid 0.2% to $1.2680 . The dollar index was 0.06% lower at 103.40. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on as investors brace themselves for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision this week. With the beginning of Fed's meeting on Tuesday, focus shifts to Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday for cues on whether the central bank fans or dials back market expectations around an imminent interest rate cut. Markets are currently pricing in a 46.6% chance that the U.S. central bank will begin cutting in March, dropping from 73.4% a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as data has been reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy remains resilient. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8669(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8730(Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.86003(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Tuesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for details on the timing of interest rate cut . The Fed's policy decision is due on Wednesday, having made a dovish tilt in the December meeting. Markets are widely expecting the U.S. central bank to leave rates unchanged at the end of the two-day meeting.A poll showed on Monday that uncertainty about the economy and U.S. interest rate cuts could drive record gold prices in 2024. On the data front,Japan's jobless rate fell to 2.4% in December from the previous month, government data showed on Tuesday, just under economists' median forecast of 2.5% in a poll. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.53(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.11 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.66(Jan 24th low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday, hitting fresh two-year highs, driven by overnight gains on Wall Street, strong corporate updates and investor assessment of interest rate cut expectations in a busy week for markets.
At (GMT 13:07 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices ticked up on Tuesday supported by a slightly weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields as investors primed for the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting for updates on the timing of its interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,032.70 per ounce by 1239 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,032.60.
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday following a more than 1% drop in the previous session as escalating tensions in major producing region the Middle East fuelled supply concerns, though a bleak Chinese economic outlook limited gains.
March Brent crude futures , which are due to expire on Wednesday, rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.48 a barrel by 1059 GMT. The more active April contract rose 13 cents, or 0.2% to $81.96. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 24 cents, or 0.3%, at $77.02 a barrel.