Posted at 24 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Jan Manufacturing PMI 43.2,42.5 forecast,42.1 previous
• French Jan French S&P Global Composite PMI 44.2,45.2 forecast,44.8 previous
• French Jan Services PMI 45.0, 46.0 forecast,45.7 previous
• German Composite PMI 47.1,47.8 forecast, 47.4 previous
• German Jan Services PMI 47.6,49.5 forecast,49.3 previous
• German Jan Manufacturing PMI 45.4,43.7 forecast, 43.3 previous
• EU Jan Manufacturing PMI 46.6,44.8 forecast,44.4 previous
• EU Jan Services PMI 48.4,49.0 forecast,48.8 previous
• EU Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 47.9,48.0 forecast,47.6 previous
•UK Services PMI 53.8, 53.2 forecast,53.4 previous
•UK Composite PMI 52.5,52.2 forecast,52.1 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 47.3,,46.7 forecast,46.2 previous
•UK Jan CBI Industrial Trends Orders -30,-23 forecast,-23 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast,5.00% previous
•14:45 US Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 50.9 previous
•14:45 US Jan Manufacturing PMI 47.9 forecast,47.9 previous
•14:45 US Jan Services PMI 51.0 forecast,51.4 previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -2.099M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories 2.300M forecast,3.083M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.265M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) -0.3% previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production -0.291M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.528M previous
•15:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.542M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.348M forecast,2.370M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories-2.150M forecast,-2.492M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday after Euro zone business downturn eases in January. Euro zone businesses faced a tough start to 2024 with activity contracting again in January as demand continued to fall while price pressures rose due to tensions in the Red Sea, a survey showed.The manufacturing outlook did improve somewhat but remained in contractionary territory and was partly offset by a steeper decline in the bloc's dominant services industry.HCOB's preliminary euro zone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 47.9 this month from December's 47.6, just shy of expectations in a Reuters poll for 48.0 but marking its eighth month below the 50 level separating growth from contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0970(Jan 15th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday a strong PMI reading caused traders to further dial back their bets on Bank of England rate cuts this year. Britain's economy started 2024 on a stronger footing, according to a survey of businesses published on Wednesday that prompted investors to pare their bets on the Bank of England moving quickly to cut interest rates.But while services firms grew a bit more rapidly than expected this month, Britain's long-struggling manufacturers are now being hit by the inflationary impact of tensions in the Red Sea, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. The preliminary S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI, which spans services and manufacturing firms, rose to 52.5 in January, the highest in seven months and up from December's final reading of 52.1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2757(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2813(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2682 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2649 (Jan 23rd low).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors anticipated a slew of economic data from the United States this week for fresh indications on the speed and scope of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Investors are now focusing on the U.S. flash PMI survey, which is scheduled at 1445 GMT, fourth-quarter advance GDP estimates on Thursday, and personal consumption expenditure data on Friday. A strong U.S. economy and pushback from central bank officials is leading some investors to rethink their bets on how quickly the Fed will cut rates this year. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, opens new tab, markets expect the US central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its policy meeting on January 30-31 and have pushed back the timeframe of the first interest rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8697(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8727 (Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8622(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8568(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dropped on Wednesday as the yen jumped on expectations that Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy will soon end. The yen rally followed Japanese bond yields , which leapt to six-week highs. Bank of Japan chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the central bank's inflation target were gradually increasing, adding to expectations that the country might soon leave behind its ultra-loose monetary policy.Strong Japanese export data on Wednesday added to the positive mood. Investors are now focusing on the U.S. flash PMI survey, which is slated for 1445 GMT, fourth-quarter advance GDP estimates on Thursday, and personal consumer expenditure data on Friday. The dollar was down 0.69% against the Japanese currency at 147.36 yen to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.45(38.2% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42( Jan 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.00(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.56(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares moved higher on Wednesday, boosted by technology stocks after software firm SAP and chip-making equipment maker ASML Holding posted strong earnings, while fresh stimulus from China's central bank further aided sentiment.
At (GMT 13:22 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.43 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.84 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eked out gains on Wednesday due to a lower dollar, as investors awaited a deluge of economic news in the U.S. this week for more clues on the pace and scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $2,032.88 per ounce by 12:50 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.42% to $2,034.30.
Oil steadied on Wednesday, with Brent trading near $80 a barrel, as a Chinese economic stimulus package and geopolitical tensions were offset by concerns over tepid demand and a stronger dollar.
The front-month March contract for Brent crude fell 4 cents to $79.51 a barrel at 1109 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 4 cents to $74.41 a barrel.