Posted at 19 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nov Current Account 24.6B,30.9B forecast,33.8B18 previous
•US Jan Philly Fed Employment -1.8,-1.7 previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 203.25K,207.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,806K,1,845K forecast,1,834K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 187K,207K forecast,202K previous
•US Dec Housing Starts (MoM) -4.3%, 14.8% previous
•US Jan Philly Fed CAPEX Index 7.50, -7.50 previous
•US Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid 11.30,25.10 previous
•US Jan Philly Fed New Orders-17.9,-25.6 previous
•US Dec Building Permits (MoM) 1.9%,-2.1% previous
•US Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -10.6,-7.0 forecast,-10.5 previous
•US Dec Building Permits 1.495M,1.480M forecast,1.467M previous
•US Dec Housing Starts 1.460M,1.426M forecast,1.560M previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories-2.492M, -0.313M forecast,1.338M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 04:30 Japan Nov Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.20 forecast,-1.20 previous
• 07:00 China FDI -10.00% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Thursdays as investors digested the European Central Bank's December policy meeting minutes. European Central Bank policymakers expressed confidence in inflation reaching the target, but acknowledged numerous risks that justified maintaining a steady policy and high borrowing costs, according to Thursday's accounts . At the meeting, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and emphasized the absence of upcoming hikes. While indicating it was premature to discuss policy easing, markets were increasingly speculating on a potential reversal starting in early spring. The focus has shifted to the ECB's January policy decision, with the bank entering its quiet period before next week's meeting.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0955(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged up on Thursday, extending the previous day's gains after the annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly increased last month, pushing markets to temper rate cut expectations. The consumer price index unexpectedly increased to 4.0% year-on-year in December from November's more-than-two-year low of 3.9%, giving a lift to sterling and sending bond yields higher as markets wager that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates higher for longer. Sterling was up 0.17% at $1.269 , building on gains from the prior session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2799(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2633 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2592(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed versus its US counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and investors focused on local retail sales data, with the currency stabilizing after hitting a five-week low the day before. The price of oil, one of Canada's main exports, surged as the International Energy Agency predicted robust growth in global oil demand, harsh winter weather delayed U.S. crude supply, and the government announced a large weekly drop in petroleum stockpiles. The Canadian retail sales data for November, coming on Friday, will be the final big piece of domestic economic data before the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement next week. Economists predict sales to fall by 0.1%. The loonie was nearly unchanged at 1.3500 to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.3481 to 1.3527.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3553 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3585 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3477 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3424 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Thursday after labor market data indicated employment growth, dampening hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The Labor Department said on Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ending January 13, the lowest level since September 2022, falling short of economists' expectations of 207,000. A separate data from the US Commerce Department revealed that single-family homebuilding slowed in December following a previous period of growth. A dearth of previously owned homes for sale continues to support new building. The dollar was roughly even against the yen at 148.14 after rising to 148.52 on Wednesday. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.44(Jan 17th high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.54( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.61(38.2% fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.55(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities recovered on Thursday after three consecutive days of losses, boosted by positive results from Richemont and Flutter, as investors digested the European Central Bank's December policy meeting minutes.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.83 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.13 percent.
U.S. equities rose on Thursday as solid job market data provided the latest proof of the country's economic resilience, despite the fact that it may force the Federal Reserve to delay reducing its main policy rate.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.54% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.88% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.35% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose in response to strong jobless claims data, indicating that the Fed may postpone rate cuts for longer than previously expected.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 11/32 in price to yield 4.1459%, from 4.104% late on Wednesday.
The 30-year bond last fell 35/32 in price to yield 4.3734%, from 4.312% late on Wednesday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid the Middle East turmoil, as investors waited for more clarity on the US Federal Reserve's future interest rate path.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,019.12 per ounce by 02:06 p.m. ET (1906 GMT) after hitting a five-week low in the previous session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $2021.6.
Oil prices settled higher on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) joined producer group OPEC in forecasting strong growth in global oil demand and as cold winter weather disrupted U.S. crude output while the government reported a big weekly draw in crude inventories.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.22, or 1.6%, to $79.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up $1.52, or 2%, $74.08.