Posted at 18 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Dec Car Registration (YoY) 14.5%, 14.0% previous
•Italian Dec Car Registration (YoY) 5.9% ,16.2% previous
•Italian Dec Italian Car Registration (MoM) -20.2%, 0.1% previous
•UK Dec Car Registration (YoY) 9.8%, 9.5% previous
•UK Dec Car Registration (MoM) -9.9%,2.0% previous
•Swiss Nov Current Account 24.6B, 30.9B forecast,33.8B previous
•Swiss Nov Current Account 24.6B, 30.9B forecast,33.8B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Current Account 24.6B,30.9B forecast,33.8B18 previous
•13:30 US Jan Philly Fed Employment -1.7 previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.75K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,845K forecast,1,834K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 207K forecast,202K previous
•13:30 US Dec Housing Starts (MoM) 14.8% previous
•13:30 US Jan Philly Fed CAPEX Index -7.50 previous
•13:30 US Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid 25.10 previous
•13:30 US Jan Philly Fed New Orders-25.6 previous
•13:30 US Dec Building Permits (MoM) -2.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -7.0 forecast,-10.5 previous
•13:30 US Dec Building Permits 1.480M forecast,1.467M previous
•13:30 US Dec Housing Starts 1.426M forecast,1.560M previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.313M forecast,1.338M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Thursdays after the accounts from the European Central Bank's December meeting offered few clues about the timing of the first rate cut.The single currency had bounced from a five-week low of $1.08445 on Wednesday, supported by ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments to Bloomberg that there would likely be majority support among ECB officials for an interest rate cut in the summer, later than market expectations for a spring cut. Investors now await minutes, scheduled for release at 1230 GMT, from the ECB's December meeting for further clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0955(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged up on Thursday, extending the previous day's gains after the annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly increased last month, pushing markets to temper rate cut expectations. The consumer price index unexpectedly increased to 4.0% year-on-year in December from November's more-than-two-year low of 3.9%, giving a lift to sterling and sending bond yields higher as markets wager that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates higher for longer. the pound was up 0.1% against the dollar to $1.2683, extending Wednesday's 0.3% rise that snapped a three-day decline against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2799(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2633 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2592(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data added to expectations the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates.The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was steady at 103.34 in Europe, after reaching 103.69 on Wednesday for the first time since Dec. 13.Traders have trimmed the odds of a first Federal Reserve rate cut by March to 61%, from over 65% on Tuesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. The market is still pricing in around 145 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, even as Fed officials including Governor Christopher Waller this week pushed back against expectations of rapid policy loosening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8694(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8819(23.6%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8559(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as demand for safe-haven increased amid the Middle East conflict, while investors await further comments from a Federal Reserve official to gauge the central bank's interest rate trajectory. The U.S. on Wednesday put the Yemen-based Houthi rebels back on its list of terrorist groups, as the militants attacked their second U.S.-operated vessel in the Red Sea region this week. The dollar pushed as high as 148.525 yen on Wednesday for the first time since the end of November. Traders will be watching out for remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is expected to speak at two separate events later in the day. It was last trading 0.2% lower on the day at 147.895 yen. At the end of last week, though, it was as weak as 144.35 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.44(Jan 17th high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.54( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.61(38.2% fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.55(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Thursday, following three straight sessions of losses, lifted by Richemont and Flutter's upbeat results, while investors awaited release of the European Central Bank's policy meeting minutes due later in the day.
At (GMT 13:22 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, helped by a softer U.S. dollar and the Middle East conflict lifting safe-haven appeal, while investors await further comments from a Federal Reserve official to gauge the central bank's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,011.29 per ounce by 0955 GMT but was lingering near its five-week low hit in the previous session.U.S. gold futures also gained 0.3% to $2,013.40.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as the IEA joined producer group OPEC in forecasting relatively strong growth in global oil demand this year, with price impetus also coming from disruption to U.S. output and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures gained 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.25 a barrel by 1005 GMT