Posted at 08 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.844%, 3.757% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.341%, 3.215% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.766%,3.663% previous
•US Dec CB Employment Trends Index 113.15, 113.05 previous
•US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00%,3.40% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.235%, 5.245% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.030%,5.045% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Dec CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.0% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec CPI (YoY) 2.7% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Tokyo CPI (YoY) 2.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Nov Household Spending (YoY) -2.3% forecast,-2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 2.1% forecast,2.3% previous
•23:30 Japan Nov Household Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Building Approvals (YoY) 1.80% previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Building Approvals (MoM) -2.0% forecast,7.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Retail Sales (MoM) 1.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as investors continued to digest last week's mixed U.S. economic data and looked ahead to a key inflation reading for fresh clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates.The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. It is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0911(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors looked ahead to a slew of economic datasets this week. British economy holding up and will be tested this week by remarks on Wednesday by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey before Parliament and monthly GDP data due Friday. Geopolitical tensions were also on the radar of investors as disruptions in the Red Sea raised shipping costs in Europe, while the Israeli conflict with Hamas threatened to spread to Lebanon. The pound was trading up against the dollar to $1.2696, slightly nearer the top than the bottom of its recent range Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors assessed possibility of further interest rate hikes by U.S. central bank. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. It is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis.A New York Fed report on Monday showed that U.S. consumers' projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December. A drop in inflation closer to the Fed's 2% annual target would make it more likely that the U.S. central bank will cut rates in the coming months. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at C$1.3395 to the greenback , after trading in a range of 1.3346 to 1.3398.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3390 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3488 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3303(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3202 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors braced for U.S. inflation data. U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December, official data showed, but separate data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that the services sector slowed considerably last month. Market participants are pricing in an about 64% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank in March, down from a nearly 90% probability seen before the New Year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors awaited Thursday's U.S. consumer price inflation report for further direction on the Federal Reserve's pace and scale ofrate cuts. The dollar index was last down 0.23% at 102.21, after gaining 1% last week, the most in six months. The greenback fell 0.35% to 144.10 Japanese yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.80(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.91(Jan 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.69(Jan 8th low)a break below could take the pair towards 142.76(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ended higher on Monday, clawing back some losses following a dismal start to the year with technology and retail stocks leading gains, while energy shares languished following a drop in crude oil prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.74 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.40 percent.
The Nasdaq scored its first gain of at least 1% in 2024 on Monday, as a fall in Treasury yields helped lift megacap stocks, while a sharp drop in Boeing shares kept gains on the Dow Industrials in check.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.58 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.41% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.20 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were modestly lower on Monday in generally thin trading after gains last Friday amid the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, as investors looked to this week's government and corporate debt supply and inflation data.
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield was down 4.9 basis points (bps) at 3.992% .
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Monday, pressured by dollar strength and elevated Treasury yields as expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut faded, with investors looking ahead to this week's U.S. inflation data for more clarity.
Spot gold was down more than 1% at $2,023.49 per ounce by 9:41 a.m. ET (1441 GMT), after earlier touching its lowest since Dec. 18. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $2,029.80.
Oil prices fell over 3% on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output that offset supply concerns generated by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
Brent crude settled down $2.64, or 3.4%, at $76.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $3.04, or 4.1%, at $70.77 a barrel.