Posted at 05 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US job growth beats expectations, but service sector slows
•US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4% , 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•Canada Dec Full Employment Change-23.5K, 59.6K previous
•Canada Dec Part Time Employment Change 23.6K, -34.7K previous
•US Dec Private Nonfarm Payrolls 164K,130K forecast,150K previous
•Canada Dec Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.7%, 5.0% previous
•US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls 216K,170K forecast,199K previous
•Canada Dec Unemployment Rate 5.8%,5.9% forecast,5.8% previous
•US Dec Manufacturing Payrolls 6K, 5K forecast,28K previous
•Canada Dec Participation Rate 65.4%, 65.6% previous
•US Dec Government Payrolls 52.0K,49.0K previous
•US Average Weekly Hours 34.3, 34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•US Dec Unemployment Rate 3.7%, 3.8% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.1%,3.9% forecast,4.0% previous
•Canada Dec Employment Change 0.1K, 13.5K forecast,24.9K previous
•US Dec Participation Rate 62.5%,62.8% previous
•US Dec U6 Unemployment Rate 7.1%,7.0% previous
•US Nov Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.1% ,-1.2% previous
•US Nov Factory Orders (MoM) 2.6% ,2.1% forecast,-3.6% previous
•US Nov Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% previous
•Canada Dec Ivey PMI 56.3, 55.0 forecast,54.7 previous
•Canada Dec Ivey PMI n.s.a 43.7, 53.2 previous
•US Nov Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.5%,6.5% previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 56.6,55.1 previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 52.8, 55.5 previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 43.3, 50.7 previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 57.4,58.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.6,52.6 forecast,52.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Friday as investors digested the latest macroeconomic data, which presented conflicting perspectives on the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Dollar initially gained on strong U.S. employment report increased the odds that the Federal Reserve can engineer a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.But a weak report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that showed service sector employment plunged to 43.3 in December to the lowest level since July 2020 led the rate cut outlook to rise a bit. The index was at 50.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below that number shows contraction. The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six peers, slid 0.02% and the euro was unchanged at $1.0943. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0911(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Friday after various business data showed some evidence that Britain's economy was more resilient than feared in December.Britain's construction sector showed signs that it might have seen the worst of a slump caused by interest rates surging to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August.The S&P Global/CIPS UK construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose in December to 46.8 from November's 45.5 but remained below the 50.0 growth threshold for a fourth month in a row.The all-sector PMI, combining the construction data with services and manufacturing figures released this week, rose to 51.7 in December from 50.2 in November, its highest since June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday in seesaw trading as investors largely stuck with bets for central bank rate cuts over the coming months as they assessed mixed U.S. and Canadian jobs data. U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December but there were potential red flags in the employment report, including difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations.Canada's economy added a meager 100 jobs in December but permanent employees' wages increased at the fastest pace in three years.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3345 to the greenback.It touched its weakest level since Dec. 19 at 1.3398 shortly after the data was released before rebounding to its strongest of the day at 1.3288, as the U.S. dollar gyrated against a basket of major currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3378 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3430 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3340(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3996 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against the yen on Friday but gave some ground after data showed the U.S. services sector slumped in December, negating gains posted after a report showing higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls last month. Earlier in the session, the dollar got a bounce after data showed the U.S. economy generated 216,000 new jobs in December, exceeding the consensus forecast of 170,000. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing index fell to 50.6 last month, the lowest reading since May, from 52.7 in November. The services industry accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 52.6. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.55(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.91(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.33(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.40(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares logged their first weekly loss in eight on Friday, as investors grappled with a plethora of mixed global economic data, marking a bumpy start to the New Year following 2023's stellar rally.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.40 percent.
U.S. stock indexes endured a topsy-turvy session on Friday but ultimately closed marginally higher, as investors absorbed the latest macroeconomic data which offered contrasting views on when interest rate cuts may begin.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.07% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.17 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.09% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Friday after swinging up and down a percentage point on mixed U.S. economic data, but bullion eyed its first weekly decline in four weeks on an overall stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,044.21 per ounce by 3:15 p.m. EST (2015 GMT) after falling and then rising by about 1% earlier in the session. Prices were set to shed nearly 1% for the week.U.S. gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $2,049.80.
Oil prices rose by over $1 on Friday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to visit the Middle East to try to contain regional tensions as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages.
Brent crude futures were up $1.10, or 1.42%, at $78.69 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.45, or 2.01%, to $73.64 by 1551 GMT.