Posted at 03 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Redbook (YoY) 5.6%,4.1% previous
•US Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.1,47.1 forecast,46.7 previous
•US Nov JOLTs Job Openings 8.790M, 8.850M forecast,8.733M previous
• US Dec ISM Manufacturing Prices 45.2,47.5 forecast,49.9 previous
•US Dec ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.1,45.2,45.8 previous
• US Dec ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 47.1,48.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:45 China Dec Caixin Services PMI 51.6 forecast,51.5 previous
• 02:00 New Zealand Nov M3 Money Supply 405.9B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday as investors closely monitored key developments for signals regarding global monetary policy. Caution was rising ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's December meeting, due at 1900 GMT on Wednesday, as well as a slew of important U.S. data this week. U.S. data this week should clarify the outlook, with ISM's manufacturing survey, due later on Wednesday, set to show whether the central bank has new recession signals to worry about. The market-moving U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday. The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.092, its lowest since Dec. 19. It fell 0.95% on Tuesday in its biggest daily drop since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1028 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0915(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0829 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Wednesday as investors kept a watchful eye on forthcoming U.S. economic data that had the potential to impact market trends. Investors returned from the holiday period with doubts in their minds about the euphoria of November and December, when falling global inflation and softer words from central banks fuelled hopes that interest rates will drop sharply this year. Sterling was last up 0.4% at $1.2666. It slid 0.87% in the previous session, its sharpest daily fall in nearly three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a near two-week low versus the US dollar on Wednesday as investors became less confident that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to cut interest rates. Gains for the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, were of little help to the loonie. U.S. crude oil futures settled 3.3% higher at $72.70 a barrel after a disruption at Libya's top oilfield added to fears that tensions in the Middle East could reduce global oil supplies.The next domestic catalyst for the currency could come from the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. Economists expect a jobs gain of 13,500. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3360 to the greenback, or 74.85 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Dec. 21 at 1.3371.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3356 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3408 (61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3324(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3268 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as investors continued to take profits on short dollar positioning amassed toward the end of last year, even as they questioned market expectations of roughly six interest rate cuts in 2024. A drop in inflation and a dovish tilt in the Fed's December policy meeting fueled bets for multiple U.S. rate cuts in 2024, undermining the greenback and sparking a rally in Treasuries and stocks in November and December. The greenback was last up 0.9% against Japan's yen at 143.31, on track for its largest daily gain since late October. Earlier in the session, the greenback hit a two-week high of 143.73. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.93(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.52(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.98(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 141.16(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index fell to a three-week low on Wednesday in a broad-based sell-off, challenging the rise of 2023, which was fueled by anticipation that major central banks will switch to softer monetary policy this year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.51 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1. 58 percent.
U.S. stock indexes ended the second session of the year down in prolonged profit-taking on Wednesday, with minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting unable to shake off the gloom lingering over markets.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.76 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.80 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold started 2024 under pressure from a rise in the US dollar, but held its ground on anticipation that the Federal Reserve may decrease interest rates this year and mounting fears over assaults on ships in the Red Sea.
Spot gold steadied at $2,061.59 per ounce on Tuesday by 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT) after rising as much as 0.8% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $2,070.30.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, finishing up almost 3% after an interruption at Libya's largest oilfield contributed to concerns that rising Middle Eastern tensions might disrupt global oil supply.
Brent futures rose $2.36, or 3.1%, to settle at $78.25 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.32, or 3.3%, to settle at $72.70.