Posted at 03 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Dec Unemployment Rate 5.9%,5.9% forecast,5.9% previous
•German Dec German Unemployment Change 5K,20K forecast,22K previous
•German Dec German Unemployment 2.703M, 2.702M previous
•German Dec German Unemployment n.s.a 2.637M, 2.606M previous
• German 2-Year Schatz Auction2.440%, 2.640% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.1% previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.1 forecast,46.7 previous
•15:00 US Nov JOLTs Job Openings 8.850M forecast,8.733M previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing Prices 47.5 forecast,49.9 previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing Employment 45.8 previous
• 15:00 US Dec ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 48.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday as investors closely monitored key developments for signals regarding global monetary policy. Caution was rising ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's December meeting, due at 1900 GMT on Wednesday, as well as a slew of important U.S. data this week. U.S. data this week should clarify the outlook, with ISM's manufacturing survey, due later on Wednesday, set to show whether the central bank has new recession signals to worry about. The market-moving U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday. The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.092, its lowest since Dec. 19. It fell 0.95% on Tuesday in its biggest daily drop since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1028 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0915(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0829 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Wednesday as investors kept a watchful eye on forthcoming U.S. economic data that had the potential to impact market trends. Investors returned from the holiday period with doubts in their minds about the euphoria of November and December, when falling global inflation and softer words from central banks fuelled hopes that interest rates will drop sharply this year. Sterling was last flat against the dollar at $1.2624, after falling 0.87% the previous day in its biggest one-day drop since mid-October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors were anticipating the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting and U.S. jobs data, seeking greater clarity on the possibility of future interest rate cuts. Traders are cautious ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. central bank's December policy meeting, due at 1900 GMT on Wednesday. Investors are also keenly awaiting a slew of U.S. economic data this week, including non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Futures markets see a 70% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut at the March meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8552(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8661(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8428(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8350(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as focus turned to Federal Reserve's December policy meeting and U.S. data .Trading was relatively subdued, with Japanese markets shut for a holiday and investors waiting for important U.S. economic releases later in the day, including minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. Investors will scrutinise the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, due at 1900 GMT (2 p.m. ET), for any hints about how many rate cuts the central bank will actually carry out this year.Before that, data on U.S. job openings for November and a survey-based gauge of the manufacturing sector could also move markets. The greenback was last up 0.61% against Japan's yen at 142.84, adding to the previous day's 0.82% gain. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.93(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.52(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.98(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 141.16(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as a rally from last year started to lose steam, with investors keeping an eye out for major factors during the day for cues on global monetary policy.
At (GMT 13:28 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.53 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped to their lowest in a week on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, while investors looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs data for more clarity on potential interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $2,053.10 per ounce as of 1021 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% to $2,062.20 per ounce.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after sharp moves earlier in the week gave way to increased caution about the U.S. economy and nervousness persisted about the impact on supply of tensions in the Red Sea.
Brent crude gained 18 cents to $76.07 a barrel by 1229 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2 cents to $70.4 a barrel.