Posted at 02 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Dec Manufacturing PMI 48.8, 49.0 previous
•Spanish Dec Manufacturing PMI 46.2,47.0 forecast,46.3 previous
•Italian Dec Manufacturing PMI 45.3,44.4 forecast, 44.4 previous
•French Dec Manufacturing PMI 42.1,42.0 forecast,42.9 previous
•German Dec Manufacturing PMI 43.3 ,43.1 forecast,42.6 previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 0.5%, 0.8% forecast,0.6% previous
•EU Nov M3 Money Supply (YoY) -0.9%, -1.0% forecast,-1.0% previous
•EU Dec Manufacturing PMI 44.4, 44.2 forecast,44.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.729% previous
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.333% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.690% previous
•14:30 Canada Dec Manufacturing PMI 47.7 previous
•14:45 US Dec Manufacturing PMI 48.2 forecast,49.4 previous
•15:00 US Nov Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 2.3% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.260% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.080% previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.3% forecast,2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday as traders digested data showing euro zone factory activity contracted in December for an 18th straight month. Euro zone factories ended 2023 on the back foot, with activity contracting in December for an 18th straight month, according to a survey which gave scant signs of any imminent strong bounce back in an economy likely in recession.HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, did nudge up to 44.4 in December from November's 44.2 but remained firmly below the 50 mark separating growth in activity from contraction.A preliminary estimate was for no change from November.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1047 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0947 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0869 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Tuesday after Britain's manufacturing sector reported a more significant decline in December. Britain's manufacturing sector suffered a setback in its attempts to return to growth as output and employment fell more sharply in December than the previous month, according to a survey published on Tuesday.The final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) weakened to 46.2 in December, ending a run of three months of improvement and down from a seven-month high of 47.2 in November.The reading was also down slightly from a preliminary December estimate of 46.4 and was below the 50.0 growth threshold for a 17th month in a row. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2773(29th Dec).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2623 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Tuesday as attention turned to U.S. jobs data and European inflation numbers this week which may provide clues on central banks' next moves. A slew of economic data is due this week including European inflation data and U.S. data on job openings and non-farm payrolls, which will help shape market expectations regarding monetary policy moves from the Fed and European Central Bank. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was last at 101.55, up 0.17%. It fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains as investors weighed the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8588(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8432(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8350(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as investors keenly awaited a series of economic data releases scheduled and Fed minutes for the week, which could provide further insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Market focus this week is on the minutes from the last Fed meeting, due out on Thursday. Data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls due on Friday will also be keenly watched. Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.42(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.52(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.80(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index hit a near two-year high on Tuesday with energy and banks stocks leading the charge, as investors entered 2024 with undeterred hopes that major central banks might finally deliver interest rate cuts.
At (GMT 13:15 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.79 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Tuesday, boosted by expectations of an easing of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024 as investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week that could shed more light on the timing of rate cuts.
Spot gold gained 13% in 2023, its first annual rise since 2020. On Tuesday it was up 0.6% at $2,074.40 per ounce as of 1025 GMT. U.S. gold futures G also rose 0.6%, to $2,084.00 per ounce.
Oil prices rose more than 2% in the first session of the New Year, boosted by potential disruption to Middle East supply after the latest attack on a container ship in the Red Sea and by Chinese demand hopes.
Brent crude rose $1.72, or 2.2%, to $78.76 a barrel by 1115 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.57, or 2.2%, at $73.22.