Posted at 26 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Dollar hovers near five-month low
•Muted volumes on holiday thinned trade
•Spanish PPI (YoY) -7.4%,-7.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Chicago Fed National Activity -0.49 previous
•14:00 US Oct House Price Index (YoY) 6.1% previous
•14:00 US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.7% previous
•14:00 US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 5.0% forecast,3.9% previous
•14:00 US Oct House Price Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.6% previous
•14:00 US Oct House Price Index 414.8 previous
•15:30 US Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -19.9 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.260% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.130% previous
•18:00 US Nov M2 Money Supply (MoM) 20.73T previous
•18:00 US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.935% previous
•18:00 US 2-Year Note Auction 4.887% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday but gains were limited as investors avoided making bets in holiday thin market on Tuesday as markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the Euro Zone were closed for the Boxing Day public holiday. Investors were aslo digesting data released on Friday, which showed that US prices decreased in November for the first time in more than three and a half years, highlighting the economy's resilience. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Monday,the European Central Bank will need at least until spring before it can reassess its policy outlook and market expectations for an interest rate cut in March or April are premature. The euro edged 0.03% higher to $1.1024, not too far from a five-month top of $1.1040 hit last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1034(Dec 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1089(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0996 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0978(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound was flat against dollar on Tuesday as traders digested data that showed British retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, but third-quarter GDP was revised lower. Data on Friday showed UK Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter.However, there were some more upbeat signs about the economy in separate data also published on Friday which showed retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, increasing by 1.3% from October, boosted by discount sales. The boost to retail sales volumes reflected heavy discounting during the Black Friday sales promotions. Sales fell over the three months to November and were still below their pre-pandemic levels, the statistics office said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2794(Dec 15th high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2688(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2657(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was little changed against Swiss franc on as investors avoided the thinly traded market on Tuesday. Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the Euro Zone were closed for the Boxing Day public holiday. Investors were still digesting data released on Friday that showed U.S. prices fell in November for the first time in more than 3-1/2 years, underscoring the economy's durability. The data came a week after the U.S. central bank held rates steady and policymakers signalled that the historic monetary policy tightening is at an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8591(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8597 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8513(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher versus the yen on Tuesday after BOJ's Ueda signaled chance of policy shift. Ueda said on Monday the likelihood of achieving the central bank's inflation target was gradually rising and it would consider changing policy if prospects of sustainably achieving the 2% target increase sufficiently . Ueda said the BOJ had not decided on a specific timing to change the loosest monetary stance of any major central bank, due to uncertainties over economic and market developments . Meanwhile, data out on Tuesday showed Japan's jobless rate was unchanged at 2.5% in November from the previous month, while business-to-business service inflation was steady at 2.3% last month.Strong resistance can be seen at 142.92(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.43(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.81(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stock market is closed on account on Boxing Day public holiday
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained in holiday-shortened trade on Tuesday, as the US dollar and bond yields fell on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates as early as March of next year.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,063.78 per ounce, as of 0401 GMT, after hitting a more than two-week high of $2,070.39 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.3% to $2,074.90 per ounce.
Oil rose slightly on Tuesday, aided by geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and investor confidence that the United States Federal Reserve would soon begin slashing interest rates, boosting global economic growth and fuel consumption.
Brent crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.25 a barrel by 1208 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 3 cents at $73.59.