Posted at 26 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nov Chicago Fed National Activity 0.03, -0.49 previous
•US Oct House Price Index (YoY) 6.3% , 6.1% previous
•US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.6% ,0.7% previous
•US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% previous
•US Oct S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.9%, 5.0% forecast,3.9% previous
•US Oct House Price Index (MoM) 0.3% , 0.5% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Oct House Price Index 416.3 ,414.8 previous
•US Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -9.3 ,-19.9 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.260% , 5.260% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.080%, 5.130% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 Chinese Nov Industrial profit YTD -7.8% previous
•02:00 New Zealand Nov M3 Money Supply 405.9B previous
•05:00 Japan Nov Housing Starts (YoY) -4.3% forecast,-6.3% previous
•05:00 Japan Nov Construction Orders (YoY) 4.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 23:50 Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday as dollar declined as investors awaited additional signals on the Federal Reserve's potential initiation of interest rate cuts, given the proximity of inflation to the central bank's annual target of 2%. Despite the subdued currency movements the day after Christmas, trading remained muted due to public holidays in various markets, including the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong. Additionally, a significant number of U.S. traders were away on holiday until the New Year. The euro was up 0.01% at $1.1024. The single currency has risen from a 20-year low of $0.9528 on Sept. 26, 2022 and is on track for a 2.90% gain this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1034(Dec 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1089(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0996 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0978(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as traders digested data that showed British retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, but third-quarter GDP was revised lower. Data on Friday showed UK Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter.However, there were some more upbeat signs about the economy in separate data also published on Friday which showed retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, increasing by 1.3% from October, boosted by discount sales. The boost to retail sales volumes reflected heavy discounting during the Black Friday sales promotions. Sales fell over the three months to November and were still below their pre-pandemic levels, the statistics office said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2794(Dec 15th high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2688(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2657(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to five month high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday driven by traders' expectations of the ongoing decline in the U.S. dollar, despite data indicating a persistent economic soft patch in Canada. The Canadian gross domestic product remained stagnant, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% increase. Furthermore, September's figures, after a downward revision, also reflected no growth. Although a preliminary estimate indicated a 0.1% gain in November, investors continued to anticipate the Bank of Canada's initiation of easing measures in the forthcoming months. The loonie was trading 0.39% higher at 1.3210 to the greenback.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3268 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3290(38.%fib2).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3206(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3184 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher versus the yen on Tuesday after BOJ's Ueda signaled chance of policy shift. Ueda said on Monday the likelihood of achieving the central bank's inflation target was gradually rising and it would consider changing policy if prospects of sustainably achieving the 2% target increase sufficiently . Ueda said the BOJ had not decided on a specific timing to change the loosest monetary stance of any major central bank, due to uncertainties over economic and market developments . Meanwhile, data out on Tuesday showed Japan's jobless rate was unchanged at 2.5% in November from the previous month, while business-to-business service inflation was steady at 2.3% last month.Strong resistance can be seen at 142.92(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.43(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.81(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stock market was closed on account on Boxing Day public holiday.
Wall Street's main indices started the last week of the year on a positive note, with growing expectations of early Federal Reserve rate cuts boosting investor sentiment after the Christmas holidays.
At (GMT 17:56 ) Dow Jones was down by 0.31 percent, S&P 500 ended was up by 0.34 percent, Nasdaq was up by 0.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold consolidated gains on Tuesday, extending its climb for a third session on a weaker dollar and Treasury yields, in holiday-thinned trading in the last week of the year with traders eyeing an early 2024 start to U.S. rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,058.85 per ounce by 10:10 a.m. ET (1510 GMT), near a more than two-week high of $2,070.39 hit last session. U.S. gold futures was up 0.1% at $2,070.00..
Oil jumped 3% on Tuesday, as gains were propelled by additional attacks on ships in the Red Sea, raising concerns about potential disruptions in shipping. Additionally, hopes for interest rate cuts, seen as catalysts for economic growth and increased fuel demand, also contributed to the upward momentum in oil prices.
Brent crude futures were up $2.41, or 3.1%, at $81.48 a barrel by 11:52 a.m. ET (1652 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $2.36, or 3.2%, to $75.92.