Posted at 23 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US annual inflation slows further below 3% in November
• US Nov Building Permits 1.467M,1.460M forecast,1.498M previous
• US Nov Building Permits (MoM) -2.1% ,-2.5% forecast,1.8% previous
• US Nov Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.5% forecast,-6.4% previous
• US Nov Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 5.4%,1.7% forecast,-5.1% previous
• US Nov Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.5%,0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
• US Nov Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.8%,0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•Canada Oct GDP (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov Personal Income (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
• US Nov Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.3%,0.1% previous
• US Nov PCE price index (MoM) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
• US Nov Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov PCE Price index (YoY) 2.6%,2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•15:00 US Nov New Home Sales 590K,695K forecast,679K previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1%,3.1% forecast, 4.5% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Sentiment 69.7,69.4 forecast,61.3 previous
•15:00 US Nov New Home Sales (MoM) -12.2%,-5.6% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Expectations 67.4,66.4 forecast,56.8 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Current Conditions 73.3,74.0 forecast,68.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9%,2.8% forecast,3.2% previous
•16:00 Canada Oct Budget Balance -6.96B ,-3.88B previous
•16:00 Canada Oct Budget Balance (YoY) -15.13B, -8.17B previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.3%,2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 498,501 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 620. 623 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro gained on Friday as dollar declined as data showed annual U.S. inflation slowed further below 3% in November, cementing market expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut next March.In the 12 months through November, inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, stood at 2.6%, easing from 2.9% in October. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PCE price index advanced 3.2% year-on-year in November, the smallest rise since April 2021. The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. The dollar index was last down 0.08 % at 101.7 , after dipping as low as 101.42, its lowest since late July. The euro was up 0.02 %. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1046(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1063(Aug 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0974 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0959(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained on Friday but gave up as traders digested data that showed British retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, but third-quarter GDP was revised lower.Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. It had previously estimated that the economy was unchanged from the previous three months and economists polled had mostly expected another unchanged reading. However, there were some more upbeat signs about the economy in separate data also published on Friday which showed retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, increasing by 1.3% from October, boosted by discount sales. The boost to retail sales volumes reflected heavy discounting during the Black Friday sales promotions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2746(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2771(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2680(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2657(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a near five-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as traders bet that the recent downtrend in the U.S. dollar would continue, and despite data showing a lingering soft patch for Canada's economy. The U.S. dollar added to recent declines against a basket of currencies as data showed annual U.S. inflation slowed further below 3% in November. Canadian gross domestic product was unchanged in October, missing estimates for a 0.2% increase, while September's print was also flat after a downward revision. A preliminary estimate showed a gain of 0.1% in November but investors stuck with bets for the Bank of Canada to also begin easing in the coming months. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3260 to the greenback, after touching its strongest intraday level since Aug. 1 at 1.3220. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3309 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3329 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3225(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped versus the yen on Friday as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data supporting the view that the Federal Reserve could cut borrowing costs in the new year. Annual U.S. inflation slowed further below 3% in November and underlying price pressures continued to abate. A separate report showed new orders for core capital goods landed well above analysts' expectations, an upside surprise that bodes well for U.S. corporate spending plans. The data is the last major release this year, and many investors are expected to be away between Monday's Christmas Day holiday and New Year's Day. Financial markets are pricing in a 74.1% likelihood that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.97(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.24(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.95(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European equities dipped on Friday, led by technology and apparel companies, as investors assessed the possible impact of Red Sea assaults on global commerce.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.03 percent.
US equities finished mixed on Friday as investors headed into the Christmas holiday weekend, having digested lower-than-expected inflation data, which firmed expectations that Federal Reserve cut interest rate in the new year.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.05 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.17 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.19 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ended slightly higher on the day, with traders closing positions ahead of the long weekend.
Benchmark 10-year yields ended up less than a basis point at 3.897%. Two-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.325%.
Commodities Recap
Gold scaled a more than two-week high on Friday, rising for a second week as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields slipped on rising expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,052.69 per ounce as of 3:50 p.m. ET (20:50 GMT), its highest level since Dec. 4, putting it on course for a 1.7% weekly gain.U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $2,069.1.
Oil prices eased on Friday ahead of the long Christmas holiday weekend on expectations Angola could increase output after leaving OPEC, but rose for the week on positive U.S. economic news and worries Houthi ship attacks would boost supply costs.
Brent futures fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $79.07 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 33 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $73.56.