Posted at 22 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Dec Consumer Confidence 89, 87 previous
• French Nov PPI (MoM) 2.4%, -0.1% previous
• EU Nov PPI (YoY) 0.30%, -1.20% previous
• Italian Dec Consumer Confidence 106.7,103.8 forecast,103.6 previous
• Belgium Dec CPI (YoY)1.35%, 0.76% previous
• US Nov Building Permits 1.467M,1.460M forecast,1.498M previous
• US Nov Building Permits (MoM) -2.1% ,-2.5% forecast,1.8% previous
• US Nov Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.5% forecast,-6.4% previous
• US Nov Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 5.4%,1.7% forecast,-5.1% previous
• US Nov Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.5%,0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
• US Nov Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.8%,0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•Canada Oct GDP (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov Personal Income (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
• US Nov Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.3%,0.1% previous
• US Nov PCE price index (MoM) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
• US Nov Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
• US Nov PCE Price index (YoY) 2.6%,2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Nov New Home Sales 695K forecast,679K previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast, 4.5% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Sentiment 69.4 forecast,61.3 previous
•15:00 US Nov New Home Sales (MoM) -5.6% previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Consumer Expectations 66.4 forecast,56.8 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan Current Conditions 74.0 forecast,68.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8% forecast,3.2% previous
•16:00 Canada Oct Budget Balance -3.88B previous
•16:00 Canada Oct Budget Balance (YoY) -8.17B previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 501 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 623 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained on Friday as dollar declined, driven by increasing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fed officials have been pushing back against the idea of rapid rate cuts next year, but these remarks have done little to change investor sentiment. Traders are now pricing-in an 83% chance of a U.S. rate cut by March, according to the CME FedWatch tool .Meanwhile, fresh euro zone data showed Spain's third-quarter gross domestic product growth slowed down slightly, while another set showed Germany's third-quarter residential property prices dropped 10.2% in a further grim sign for the real estate sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1034(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1089(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0996 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0978(5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday as the dollar slipped as investors ramped up bets that the Fed will cut interest rates sharply next year. Britain's economy might be in a recession, according to data that showed it shrank between July and September, shortly after finance minister Jeremy Hunt took the rare step of suggesting the Bank of England might cut interest rates to boost growth.Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. However, there were some more upbeat signs about the economy in separate data also published on Friday which showed retail sales in November jumped by much more than expected, increasing by 1.3% from October, boosted by discount sales.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2794(15 Dec high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2688(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2657(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined to hit nearly nine years low against Swiss franc on Friday as traders ramped up bets of how much the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates in 2024. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies is down 4.3% in the three months since the start of October, which would be its biggest quarterly drop this year.The Swiss franc firmed with the dollar down as much as 0.3% to 0.85355 francs , falling below the trough from July this year, and taking it to its weakest since January 2015. That was when the Swiss National Bank sparked significant volatility by discontinuing its policy of having a minimum exchange rate against the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8591(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8597 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8513(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped versus the yen on Friday as the US Federal Reserve's dovish narrative weighed on the greenback. The dollar index was not helped by the U.S. GDP expanding at a slower pace than was expected in the third quarter. Third-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised down to 4.9% from 5.2%. Economists polled by had anticipated that GDP growth would be unrevised. The data comes in the backdrop of investors pricing in a high probability of the Fed cutting rates as early as in the March meeting, despite resistance from policymakers. The Japanese yen, which has been the worst performing major currencies against the dollar this year , was last up at 142.00. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.92(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.43(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.81(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Friday as investors assessed the potential disruption from Red Sea attacks on global trade.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to their highest level in nearly three weeks on Friday as the dollar and bond yields fell after U.S. inflation data .
Spot gold was up 0.8% to $2,061.60 per ounce at 1225 GMT and U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% to $2,073.70.
Oil prices jumped by up to 1% on Friday as tensions in the Middle East remained high following Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, despite Angola's decision to leave OPEC cast doubt on the group's ability to stabilize prices.
Brent crude futures were up 71 cents, or 0.89%, to $80.10 a barrel at 1140 GMT ahead of Friday's earlier 1230 GMT close ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 81 cents, or 1.1%, at $74.70 a barrel. At its intra-day peak, WTI traded $1 higher than Thursday's close