Posted at 21 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nov Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 12.453B forecast, 13.329B previous
•UK Nov Public Sector Net Borrowing 13.41B, 11.90B forecast, 13.97B previous
•French Dec Business Survey 100, 98 forecast,99 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.25K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,888K forecast, 1,876K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 214K forecast, 202K previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.00% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Dec Philly Fed CAPEX Index -1.30 previous
•13:30 US Dec Philly Fed Employment 0.8 previous
•13:30 US Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid 14.80 previous
•13:30 US Dec Philly Fed New Orders 1.3 previous
•13:30 US Dec Philly Fed Business Conditions -2.1 previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 3.5% forecast,1.7% previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q3) 2.8% forecast, 2.5% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3)2.30% forecast, 3.70% previous
•13:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 4.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 5.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Dec Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -3.0 forecast,-5.9 previous
•15:00 US Nov Leading Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast, -0.8% previous
•16:00 US Dec KC Fed Composite Index -2 previous
•16:00 US Dec KC Fed Manufacturing Index -3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strenthed on Thursday as investors awaited crucial U.S. economic growth data later in the day.The European Central Bank's (ECB) Vice President, Luis de Guindos, said on Thursday it was too early to talk about interest rate cuts.Markets will now closely track comments from the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, due to speak around 1600 GMT, to gauge the interest rate trajectory for the euro zone.The final estimates for U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product and the weekly jobless claims report later in the day are also on the radar for more clues on the Fed's rate stance . The euro was up 0.4% at $1.0986. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0983(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0845(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was flat against the dollar on Thursday as traders digested the latest snapshot of the UK budget deficit, while Wednesday's cooler-than-expected November inflation print continued to sink in. Figures on Thursday showed the budget picture for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak deteriorating as November's deficit came out wider than expected, though a smaller debt interest bill thanks to slowing inflation could yet restore some of his limited room for pre-election tax cuts.The data follows a key inflation reading on Wednesday that came in well below expectations, prompting market players to bring forward bets on when the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting interest rates. The CPI print saw the pound plunge 0.715% versus the dollar on Wednesday, clocking its biggest daily fall in almost two months. Immediately before the data .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2739 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2786(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2590(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors focus turned towards U.S. inflation figures on Friday. The year's last dump of U.S. data is due later in the form of the final estimates of U.S. third-quarter GDP and the weekly jobless claims report. The final estimates for U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product and the weekly jobless claims report later in the day are also on the radar for more clues on the Fed's rate stance.The Federal Reserve's dovish December pivot has boosted the case for the weakening dollar to keep falling into 2024, though strength in the U.S. economy could limit the greenback’s decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8705(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8744(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8588 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The greenback dipped against yen on Thursday ahead of the release of key U.S. economic data. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. existing home sales rose unexpectedly in November, while consumer confidence increased more than expected in December amid optimism about the labour market.Investors are now looking ahead to the U.S. third-quarter GDP report and weekly jobless claims data due later on Thursday, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report due on Friday.A dovish tilt from the U.S. central bank has prompted traders to price in several rate cuts in 2024. However, some Fed officials have pushed back against the idea of rapid rate cuts. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.66(11DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.71(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 141.41(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday, led by losses in real estate and automobiles stocks, as a rally in global stocks stalled and investors awaited crucial U.S. economic growth data later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices steadied on Thursday, with Brent trading near $80 a barrel as higher inventories and record output in the United States overshadowed jitters over global trade disruptions in the Red Sea.
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.1%, to $79.80 a barrel by 0914 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was 4 cents higher at $74.26.
Gold prices crept higher on Thursday, but traded in a relatively tight range as investors looked to U.S. economic data for further clarity on the Federal Reserve's next monetary move.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,033.98 per ounce, as of 1035 GMT, trading in a narrow $9 range in the session so far. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,045.70.