Posted at 20 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nov Building Permits 1.460M,1.470M forecast,1.498M previous
•US Nov Building Permits (MoM) -2.5%, 1.8% previous
•US Nov Housing Starts 1.560M,1.360M forecast,1.372M previous
•US Nov Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.5%, 3.3% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Nov Median CPI (YoY) 3.4%,3.3% forecast,3.6% previous
•US Nov CPI (YoY) 3.1% , 2.9% forecast,3.1% previous
•US Nov Housing Starts (MoM) 14.8%,1.9% previous
•Canada Nov Core CPI (YoY) 2.8%,2.7% previous
•Canada Nov IPPI (YoY) -2.3%, -2.7% previous
•Canada Nov RMPI (MoM) -4.2%,-3.5% forecast,-2.5% previous
•Canada Nov CPI (MoM) 0.1%,-0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Canada Core CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.3% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 3.6%, 3.4% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.7%, 2.6% forecast,2.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:00 New Zealand Jul Economic Forecast -10.034B previous
•00:00 New Zealand Jul Budget Balance -22.430B previous
•00:00 New Zealand Jul Net Debt forecast 38.50% previous
•01:15 China Dec PBoC Loan Prime Rate 4.20% forecast,4.20% previous
•01:15 China Dec PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.45% forecast,3.45% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro gained on Tuesday as euro was supported on optimism over interest rate cuts. ECB member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said lower interest rates are seen sometime in 2024, reaffirming that inflation should be back down to 2% by 2025 at the latest. At the central bank's meeting last week, ECB President Christina Lagarde had pushed back against market bets on imminent rate cuts, but markets were not convinced. Data confirmed that euro zone inflation slowed sharply to 2.4% in November on a year-on-year basis, although many economists expect price pressures to tick up again in the coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0986(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0845(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Tuesday as investors increasingly took up sterling as a hot prospect for next year. The pound has climbed around 2.5% over the last three months as optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon be cutting rates has intensified. Investors are currently pricing in around 120 basis points of cuts from the BoE next year but almost 150 bps from the Fed. British inflation data for November is due on Wednesday before traders head off for the Christmas break. Headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, from 4.6% in October. Inflation is running higher than in the U.S. or euro zone, where it stood at 3.1% and 2.4% respectively in November. That is one reason the Bank of England pushed back against expectations for rate cuts last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2741 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2786(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2590(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency rose against the US dollar on Tuesday as investors lowered their bets on the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates in the coming months, after domestic data showing inflation unexpectedly remaining stable in November. In November, annual inflation in Canada remained at 3.1%, baffling economists who predicted it would fall to 2.9%. CPI-median and CPI-trim, two measures of core inflation carefully monitored by the Bank of Canada, remained unchanged at 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively. Adding support to Canadian dollar ,the price of oil one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.3% higher at $73.44 a barrel amid concerns about supply disruptions The Canadian dollar was up 0.4% at 1.3340 to the US dollar, after hitting its highest intraday level since August 4 at 1.3334. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3374 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3410(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3323(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3300 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The greenback strengthened against yen on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-loose policy settings on Tuesday in a widely expected move, as the bank opted to await more evidence on whether wages and prices would rise enough to justify a shift away from massive monetary stimulus.The central bank also made no change to its dovish policy guidance, dashing hopes among some traders it would tweak the language to signal a near-term end to negative interest rates.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said prices and wages appeared to be moving in the right direction with labour unions and big firms signalling the chance of sustained wage gains next year. But he warned conditions remained uncertain. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.33(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.08(14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.50(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.21(Dec15th low).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Tuesday as government bond yields eased after comments from European Central Bank officials and data that confirmed cooling inflation in the euro zone.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.08 percent.
Wall Street resumed its upward trend on Tuesday, rising throughout the day as investors anticipated the release of important inflation data and continued to digest the Federal Reserve's dovish policy reversal from last week.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.58 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.69 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Tuesday as U.S. dollar and Treasury yields slipped, while investors strapped in for U.S. economic data due this week that could provide more clarity on the Fed's interest rate path.
Spot gold added 0.6% to $2,039.67 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.81% to $2,038.40 an ounce.
Oil prices jumped more than a dollar per barrel on Tuesday, extending the previous session's gains after attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi insurgents interrupted maritime traffic and prompted additional companies to reroute ships.
Brent crude futures rose $1.28, or 1.6%, to settle at $79.23 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 1. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery , which expired after settlement on Tuesday, rose 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $73.44 a barrel, also the highest in over two weeks.