Posted at 16 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. business activity picks up in December - survey
•Canada Nov Housing Starts 212.6K, 257.1K forecast,274.7K previous
•Canada Oct Foreign Securities Purchases-15.75B, -3.98B forecast, -15.09B previous
•US Dec NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -14.50, 2.00 forecast,9.10 previous
•Canada Oct Wholesale Sales (MoM) -8.20B, 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Nov Industrial Production (YoY) -0.39%,-0.68% previous
•US Nov Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast,-0.7% previous
•US Nov Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8%, 79.1% forecast,78.9% previous
•US Nov Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,-0.6% previous
•US Dec Manufacturing PMI 48.2, 49.3 forecast,49.4 previous
•US Dec Services PMI 51.3, 50.6 forecast,50.8 previous
•US Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 51.0, 50.7 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 501, 503 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 623, 626 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Friday after downturn in euro zone business activity surprisingly deepened in December. The preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone remained steady at 44.2, going against market expectations of a 44.6 reading. Although manufacturing performance in the Eurozone maintained stability, it fell below anticipated levels. Business activity in Germany, the largest economy in Europe, contracted in December, raising concerns about the increased likelihood of a recession by the year-end. Simultaneously, in France, a downturn accelerated more quickly than anticipated, driven by a further deterioration in demand for goods and services in the Eurozone's second-largest economy. The euro fell 0.83% to $1.0899. It reached $1.1009 on Thursday, the highest since Nov. 29. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1023(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1065(Aug 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0896(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0855 (5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve's President John Williams pushed back against the market’s rate cut expectations. Williams was the first Fed official to speak in the wake of a policy meeting this week in which the central bank left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range. With rates steady, the big shift in the Fed outlook was tied to projections of an easing of monetary policy next year. Sterling dropped 0.60% to $1.2690, after reaching $1.2793 on Thursday, the highest since Aug. 22. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2791 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2890(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2657(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(14DMA).
USD/CAD: The loonie rose against its US counterpart on Friday after Bank of Canada made clear that interest rates were not coming down any time soon . The Canadian central bank raised rates by a quarter point in both June and July to a 22-year high and has left them on hold in the three policy-setting meetings since. Inflation slowed to 3.1% in October, down from a 2022 peak of more than 8%, but has remained above the bank's 2% target since March 2021.On the data front, Canadian housing starts plunged 22% in November compared with the previous month, while a separate reading showed U.S. business activity picked up in December. The loonie was trading 0% higher at C$1.34 to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.3374 to 1.3414. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3432 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3349 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3300 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The greenback edged higher against yen on Friday following remarks from the Fed's Williams, who tempered expectations for a rate cut.Euphoria over the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot was dampened a bit after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams pushed back against rate cut expectations, reiterating that the central bank remains focused on bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Economic data released on Friday signaled an uptick in U.S. business activity but also showed the manufacturing sector continues to struggle. The dollar was last up 0.24% at 142.18 yen , after dropping to 140.95 on Thursday, the lowest since July 31. The greenback is on track to post its worst week against the Japanese currency since July 14 with a 1.94% fall.Strong resistance can be seen at 142.32(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.88(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.02(Dec 15th low)a break below could take the pair towards 140.31(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched up on the final day of a week marked by major central bank policy decisions, in which the U.S. Federal Reserve set the tone for market expectations about interest rate cuts being on the horizon.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.95percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.00 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.28 percent.
The S&P 500 ended a choppy session little changed on Friday but registered a seventh straight week of gains in its longest winning streak since 2017 after this week's dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.15 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.01 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent and US crude futures ended with a modest loss after a volatile day in which prices plummeted more than $1 per barrel at one point on Friday as traders attempted to reconcile conflicting signals about oil demand in the next year.
Brent futures settled down 6 cents, or 0.08%, at$76.55 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished down 15 cents, or 0.21%, at $71.43.
Gold reduced its gains on Friday after Federal Reserve official Williams scaled back expectations of rate cuts in March.
Spot gold edged down 0.8% to $2,019.64 per ounce, and has risen 1.8% so far this week. U.S. gold futures fell 0.45% to $2,035.7.