Posted at 15 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•France Nov CPI (MoM) -0.20% ,0.10% previous
•France Nov French CPI (MoM) -0.2%,-0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•France Nov CPI (YoY) 3.50%, 4.00% previous
•France Nov Inflation (YoY) 3.30%,3.90% previous
•France Nov HICP (YoY) 3.9%,3.8% forecast,4.5% previous
•France Nov French HICP (MoM) -0.2%, -0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• French CPI (YoY)3.5%, 3.4% forecast,4.0% previous
• French Dec Manufacturing PMI 42.0, 43.3 forecast,42.9 previous
•German Dec Manufacturing PMI 43.1,43.2 forecast,42.6 previous
•German Dec Composite PMI 46.7,48.2 forecast,47.8 previous
• German Dec Services PMI 48.4,49.8 forecast,49.6 previous
• EU Dec Services PMI 48.1,49.0 forecast,48.7 previous
• EU Dec Manufacturing PMI 44.2,44.6 forecast,44.2 previous
• EU Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 47.0,48.0 forecast,47.6 previous
•UK Composite PMI 51.7, 50.9 forecast,50.7 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 46.4, 47.5 forecast, 47.2 previous
•UK Services PMI 52.7, 51.0 forecast, 50.9 previous
• EU Trade Oct Balance 11.1B, 10.0B previous
• EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q3)5.30%, 4.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 Canada Nov Housing Starts 257.1K forecast,274.7K previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Foreign Securities Purchases -3.98B forecast, -15.09B previous
•13:30 US Dec NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 2.00 forecast,9.10 previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:15 US Nov Industrial Production (YoY) -0.68% previous
•14:15 US Nov Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.7% previous
•14:15 US Nov Capacity Utilization Rate 79.1% forecast,78.9% previous
•14:15 US Nov Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.6% previous
•14:45 US Dec Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast,49.4 previous
•14:45 US Dec Services PMI 50.6 forecast,50.8 previous
•14:45 US Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 50.7 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 503 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 626 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:40 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Friday after data showed German economic activity deteriorates in Dec. Germany's economic downturn worsened this month with both manufacturing and services activity contracting, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, pointing to a recession in Europe's biggest economy at the end of the year. The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell for the sixth consecutive month, declining to 46.7 in December from November's 47.8, below the 48.2 forecast by economists. Business activity in the services sector fell for the third consecutive month, to a reading of 48.4 in December from 49.6 in the previous month, below analysts' forecast of 49.8.The manufacturing PMI rose to 43.1 from 42.6 in November, slightly below analysts' expectations of 43.2 and still in contraction territory. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1023(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1065(Aug 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0929 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0873 (5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Friday after the publication of the Purchasing Managers' Index supported the BoE in its refusal to talk about cutting borrowing costs. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI - spanning services and manufacturing firms - rose to 51.7, according to December's preliminary reading, the highest in six months and up from November's final reading of 50.7.Economists polled had forecast a smaller increase to 50.9.The stronger-than-expected reading contrasted with a PMI survey for the euro zone which worsened in December and suggested the bloc was is in a recession. Sterling eased 0.2% to $1.2745, having surged 1.1% to a four-month high of $1.2793. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2786 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2890(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2705(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2649(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Friday as U.S. Federal Reserve- dovish policy shift and prospects of lower borrowing costs next year continued weigh on greenback. Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting continued to underpin stock and bond bulls. At that meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but policy makers pencilled in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2024, and Chair Jerome Powell said the historic tightening of monetary policy was likely over, as inflation falls faster than expected.Markets have taken that and run with it, pricing in around 150 basis points of Fed cuts next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8732(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8744(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8635 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8600(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The greenback declined against yen on Friday as dollar continued to weaken on Fed's interest rate pivot. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at Wednesday's meeting that the tightening of monetary policy is likely over, with a discussion of cuts coming into view. The Bank of Japan is the last of the major central banks to meet this month and the question among traders and investors is whether or not the BOJ will signal its intention to ditch its policy of keeping interest rates at rock-bottom next week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.1% to 141.70 per dollar, having risen 0.7% to a four-and-a-half month high of 140.95 on Thursday. The yen is up 2% this week, set for a fifth straight week of gains against the dollar, its longest such stretch since mid-2020..Strong resistance can be seen at 142.32(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.88(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.02(Dec 15th low)a break below could take the pair towards 140.31(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Energy and miners led European shares higher on the final day of a week marked by major central bank policy decisions, in which the U.S. Federal Reserve set the tone for market expectations about interest rate cuts being on the horizon.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track for a weekly jump, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, after the Federal Reserve indicated lowering borrowing costs next year.
Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $2,039.40 per ounce by 0942 GMT, and has risen 1.8% so far this week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,055.30.
Oil prices rose on Friday, on track to notch their first weekly rise in two months after benefiting from a bullish forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil demand for next year and a weaker dollar.
U.S. crude rose 0.18% to $71.7 per barrel, while Brent was also up 0.25% to $76.80 per barrel.