Posted at 14 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Nov PPI (MoM) -0.9%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Swiss Nov PPI (YoY) -1.3%, -0.9% previous
•Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) 1.75%,1.75% forecast, 1.75% previous
•Irish Nov HICP (MoM)-0.9%, -1.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Irish Nov Irish CPI (YoY) 3.9% forecast, 5.1% previous
•Irish Nov Irish HICP (YoY) 2.5%, 2.3% forecast,3.6% previous
•BoE Dec Interest Rate Decision 5.25%,5.25%,5.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 EU Dec Deposit Facility Rate 4.00% forecast, 4.00% previous
•13:15 EU Dec ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:30 US Nov Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Retail Control (MoM) 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Nov Export Price Index (MoM) -1.0% forecast,-1.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Import Price Index (MoM) -0.8% forecast, -0.8% previous
•13:30 US Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 2.48% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.7% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast,220K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,887K forecast,1,861K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.220.75K previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 163.3K previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -4.9% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -2.0% previous
•15:00 US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.9% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Oct Business Inventories (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -54B forecast,-117B previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.285% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:45 EU ECB Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher against dollar on Thursday as focus shifted to the European Central Bank's (ECB)policy decision. The European Central Bank faces a difficult balancing act on Thursday as it likely slashes its forecasts for growth and inflation while trying to temper speculation about imminent interest rate cuts. The ECB is certain to leave borrowing costs at record highs, with the only possible policy change relating to the end of its last surviving bond-buying scheme - a legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic. But the central bank's last meeting of the year will be anything but dull, with President Christine Lagarde under pressure to defend or ditch her guidance that rates will stay where they are for the next couple of quarters. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0955(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0895 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0873 (Daily low).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against dollar on Thursday after Bank of England held interest rate steady at 5.25%, in line with economists' expectation. The Bank of England stuck to its guns on Thursday and said British interest rates needed to stay high for 'an extended period', a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would cut U.S. interest rates next year.The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%, in line with economists' expectations in a poll last week. There was no discussion of cutting interest rates, and the BoE remains concerned that inflation in Britain will continue to be stickier than in the United States and the euro zone.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2727 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2773(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2658(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2599(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday after Swiss central bank holds rates, drops references to future rate hikes. The Swiss National Bank kept its interest rates on hold and lowered its inflation forecasts on Thursday, which analysts saw as pointing to the end of recent rate hikes and heralding lower borrowing costs next year. The SNB, which kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected in a Reuters poll, also said it would no longer focus on selling foreign currency and dropped any reference to future rate hikes . The Swiss central bank kicked off a busy day for central banks across Europe, with the European Central Bank and Bank of England also expected to keep rates on hold later on Thursday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8732(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8744(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8664 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8602(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that its tightening cycle is likely over and flagged rate cuts next year. Seventeen of 19 Fed officials projected lower interest rates by end-2024, after the Fed kept interest rates steady for the third meeting in a row, as was widely expected. Markets are now pricing in around an 89% chance of a rate cut in March from the Fed, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yield. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped as far as 102.42, its lowest since mid-August. It was last down 0.3% at 102.57. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.32(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.88(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.02(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 140.31(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Real estate and miners led a rally in European shares on Thursday as risk appetite received a strong boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve's indication of lower borrowing costs in 2024, with the focus shifting to the European Central Bank's (ECB)policy decision next.
(At GMT 12:42)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.75 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended gains on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled an end to its tightening cycle and lower borrowing costs in 2024, which sent the dollar and Treasury yields lower.
Spot gold was 0.6% higher at $2,037.69 per ounce as of 0927 GMT, after surging 2.4% on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures jumped 2.8% to $2,052.50.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, extending the previous session's gains, boosted by a weaker dollar and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted its oil demand forecast for next year.
Brent futures were up $1.42, or 1.9%, to $75.68 a barrel at 1131 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.34, or 1.9%, to $70.81.