Posted at 13 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Oct Construction Output (MoM) -0.5%,-0.2%forecast,0.4% previous
• UK Oct Manufacturing Production (MoM) -1.1%,0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
• UK Oct U.K. Construction Output (YoY) 1.1%,1.2% forecast,2.8% previous
• UK Oct Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
• UK Oct GDP (MoM) -0.3%,0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
• UK Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 0.4%,1.1% forecast,1.5% previous
• UK Oct Manufacturing Production (YoY) 0.8%, 1.9% forecast,3.0% previous
• UK Oct GDP (YoY) 0.3%,0.6% forecast, 1.3% previous
• UK Oct Industrial Production (MoM) -0.8%,-0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
• UK Oct Trade Balance -17.03B ,-14.30B forecast,-14.29B previous
• UK Oct Trade Balance Non-EU -4.83B ,-4.45B previous
• UK Oct Index of Services0.1%, 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU Oct Industrial Production (YoY) -6.6%,-4.6% forecast,-6.9% previous
•EU Oct Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7%,-0.3% forecast,-1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•13:30 US Nov PPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•13:30 US PPI (YoY) 1.0% forecast,1.3% previous
•13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.9% previous
•13:30 US Nov Core PPI (YoY) 2.2% forecast,2.4% previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.650M forecast,-4.632M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories 1.933M forecast,5.421M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast, 5.50% previous
•19:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q4) 3.9% previous
•19:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr (Q4) 2.9% previous
•19:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q4) 5.1% previous
•19:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q4) 2.5% previous
•19:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q4) 5.6% previous
•19:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
•19:00 US FOMC Statement
•19:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve's much-anticipated interest rate decision and policy outlook. The Fed's rate-setting policy committee will release its policy statement and interest rate decision at 1900 GMT, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 1930 GMT. Investors have fully priced in a Fed pause later in the day, with Tuesday's US inflation data making no difference to rate cut predictions for next year.The attention will be on Chair Jerome Powell's remarks and the central bank's short-term rate estimate.The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will make policy decisions on Thursday, with both anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0818(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0842 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0770 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0711(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against dollar on Wednesday after data showed the UK economy shrank in October, raising the risk of recession and possibly complicating the Bank of England's messaging on rates. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK GDP decreased by 0.3% in October, compared to expectations for no change.Britain's economy averted a contraction from July to September, when it also showed no change, but analysts believe it is still at danger of a short recession in late 2023 and early 2024 as a result of the Bank of England's interest rate rises. Sterling was last down 0.3% against the dollar at $1.2526. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2559(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2617(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2517 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2439(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was littlechanged against Swiss franc on Wednesday as traders prepared for the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could offer some insight into when the U.S. central bank will begin lowering interest rates. Federal Reserve officials are set to present revised economic forecasts and interest rate projections later today subsequent to a meeting where experts and investors anticipate that interest rates will remain unaltered. Specifically, market participants will closely observe whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell resists the idea of interest rate reductions in the initial half of 2024. Additionally, there is considerable interest in the central bank's "dot plot," which indicates policymakers' sentiments regarding the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. dollar index , which gauges the currency against six others, added 0.1% to 103.86 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8776(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8789(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8719(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8662(Dec 4th low)
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as markets focus shifted to Fed's last monetary policy meeting for the year, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady, while investors will be watching for comments on the timeline of rate cuts, if any.A robust U.S. jobs report last week and a sticky inflation report on Tuesday will be some of the key economic indicators that sets the stage for the Fed's meet. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets next week, and the yen has been volatile on speculation the central bank is drawing close to ending its negative rate policy. Rising hopes this may occur next Tuesday were dashed after Bloomberg reported this week that BOJ officials see little need to rush to the exit . The dollar rose 0.25% to 145.81 yen , following a 0.5% decline in the previous session. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.16(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.12(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.26(5DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 144.31(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares moved up on Wednesday, boosted by chemical makers, but investors mostly avoided riskier bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated interest rate decision and policy outlook.
(At GMT 12:32)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, helped by lower Treasury rates, but the metal stayed around its lowest level in almost three weeks as the dollar rose ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook.
Spot gold gained 0.1% at $1,981.30 per ounce, as of 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,997.60.
Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, after plunging more than 3% the previous day to six-month lows due to oversupply and demand worries.
Brent crude futures for February were up 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $73.30 a barrel at 1142 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January gained 10 cents, or 0.15%, to $68.71 a barrel.