Posted at 13 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. November CPI in line with estimates
•US Nov Real Earnings (MoM) 0.5% ,-0.1% previous
•US Nov CPI Index, s.a 307.92,307.62 previous
•US Nov CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.20%,-0.04% previous
•US Nov CPI (YoY) 3.1%, 3.1% forecast,3.2% previous
•US Nov Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Nov CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.05, 306.90 forecast,307.67 previous
•US Nov Core CPI (YoY) 4.0%, 4.0% forecast,4.0% previous
•US Nov CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 3.4%,3.0% previous
•US Nov Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.3% previous
•US Nov Federal Budget Balance -314.0B-301.1B forecast,-67.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro initially strengthened against dollar on Tuesday but trimmed gains after U.S. inflation data. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.1% year on year, matching predictions from economists , as a reduction in fuel costs was outweighed by an increase in rents. Core prices, which exclude volatile commodities like food and energy, also met forecasts, rising 4% year on year. The Federal Reserve decision on rates is due late on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The euro was last up 0.24% at $1.0790. It was around $1.0809 before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0822(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0842 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0750(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0695(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound struggled to find direction on Tuesday as after data showed that US inflation slowed somewhat in November and British wage growth stalled in October. Consumer prices in the United States grew 3.1% year on year to the end of November, data showed on Tuesday, slightly lower than the 3.2% pace recorded in October. Prices increased by 0.1% month on month. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their decisions this week, with all three anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged. Market players think the BoE is likely to hold rates a little longer than both the Fed and the ECB, raising the appeal of sterling. Sterling was last up 0.07% at $1.2563, having traded at around that level for most of the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2614(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2505 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2427(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped versus the US dollar on Tuesday as oil prices fell and investors assessed whether the Bank of Canada will be among the first global central banks to cut interest rates in the coming months. Money markets expect the Bank of Canada to decrease its benchmark rate from 5%, a 22-year high, as soon as April. Nonetheless, economists believe that the recent ease in financial conditions would make it more difficult for the central bank to control inflation and could delay rate cuts if it leads to a resurgence in housing activity. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3610 to the greenback, or 73.48 U.S. cents, marking the biggest decline among G10 currencies. It moved in a range of 1.3546 to 1.3618 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3512(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3667(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3568(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3538( (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as traders focused on key central bank policy meetings for clues on monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) exhibited a 3.1% annual increase, aligning with economists' projections. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI experienced a slight 0.1% uptick in November. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting culminating on Wednesday, encompassing the interest rate decision and the release of summary economic projections .According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there's an approximate 80% probability of a rate cut in May. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.90(50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.60(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.44(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
The benchmark market indexes in France and Germany briefly approached record highs on Tuesday as data revealed that US consumer prices unexpectedly jumped last month, adding to uncertainty in a week packed with interest rate decisions by major central banks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.02percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.11 percent.
U.S. equities finished fresh highs after inflation data did nothing to change expectations for the timing of a Federal Reserve rate cut, as investors awaited the central bank's final policy decision of the year on Wednesday.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.48 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.46 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.70 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Tuesday after data showed consumer prices in the United States rose unexpectedly in November, while traders focused on important central bank policy meetings for indications on monetary policy.
Spot gold was steady at $1,978.68 per ounce, as of 1:55 p.m. ET (1855 GMT), after rising about 0.5% ahead of the data release. U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $1,993.20.
Oil prices plummeted more than 3% to their lowest level in six months, owing to fears about oversupply and an unexpected jump in consumer prices in the United States.
Brent crude futures for February settled down $2.79, or 3.7%, to $73.24 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January slipped $2.71, or 3.8%, to $68.61 a barrel.