Posted at 12 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Oct Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 50K,54K previous
•UK Oct Average Earnings Index +Bonus 7.2%, 7.7%forecast,7.9% previous
•UK Oct Unemployment Rate 4.2%,4.2% forecast,4.2% previous
•UK Oct Average Earnings ex Bonus 7.3%,7.4% forecast,7.7% previous
•UK Nov Claimant Count Change 16.0K, 15.0K forecast, 17.8K previous
•German Nov WPI (MoM)-0.2% ,-0.1% forecast,-0.7% previous
•German Nov WPI (YoY )-3.6% ,-4.2% previous
•EU Dec ZEW Economic Sentiment 23.0,11.2 forecast,13.8 previous
•German Dec ZEW Current Conditions -77.1,-76.0 forecast,-79.8 previous
•German Dec ZEW Economic Sentiment 12.8,8.8 forecast,9.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Core CPI Index 311.37 previous
•13:30 US Nov Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI Index, s.a 307.62 previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.04% previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI (YoY) 3.1% forecast,3.2% previous
•13:30 US Nov Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI Index, n.s.a. 306.90 forecast,307.67 previous
•13:30 US Nov Core CPI (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.0% previous
•13:30 US Nov CPI (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.0% previous
•16:00 US Nov Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.3% previous
•18:00 US 30-Year Bond Auction 4.769% previous
•19:00 US Nov Federal Budget Balance -301.1B forecast,-67.0B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•13:30 EU ECB McCaul Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors looked forward to a crucial U.S. inflation report later in US session. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States is scheduled to be released at 1330 GMT. Reuters surveyed economists predict US headline inflation to be unchanged in November and core inflation to remain stable at 4% year on year considerably over the Fed's 2% objective. Investors are braced for two days packed with central bank policy meetings. The Federal Reserve decision on rates is due late on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The euro ticked up 0.22% to $1.0788. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0822(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0842 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0750(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0695(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against dollar on Tuesday as investors focus shifted to U.S. inflation reading. All eyes are now on the November consumer price index data in the United States, which will be released a day before the Federal Reserve announces its monetary policy decision. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will also announce their separate decisions this week, with all three anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged. Market players think the BoE is likely to hold rates a little longer than both the Fed and the ECB, raising the appeal of sterling. Sterling was last up 0.07% at $1.2564. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2614(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2505 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2427(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Tuesday as markets braced for consumer inflation data out of the U.S. that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. The much-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Labor Department, which is coming later on Tuesday, is predicted to reveal that inflation is slowly dropping down but is still projected to remain considerably over the Fed's 2% annual target. The core CPI is predicted to come in at 4%. The dollar last traded around 0.18% weaker against a basket of global currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8762(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8789(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8734(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8662(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors exercised caution ahead of key inflation data from the U.S. The closely-watched U.S. Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later on Tuesday is expected to show inflation still cooling but staying well above the Fed's 2% annual target, with core CPI expected to come in at 4%.Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a hold in rates on Wednesday and to keep interest rates unchanged until at least July, later than earlier thought. The dollar was 0.47% lower at 145.54 yen . Strong resistance can be seen at 145.90(50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.60(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.44(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged up on Tuesday as investors took heart from weaker-than-expected UK wage growth and looked ahead to a key U.S. inflation report later in the day.
(At GMT 12:56)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices increased on Tuesday following a three-week low in the prior session, buoyed by a softened dollar in anticipation of significant U.S. inflation data and major central bank policy meetings, providing cues regarding interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,984.39 per ounce, as of 0946 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,999.60.
Oil fell on Tuesday, giving up previous gains, as concerns over surplus production and sluggish demand growth outweighed growing supply threats in the Middle East following an attack on a ship by the Iran-backed Houthis.
Brent crude futures for February fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.71 per barrel by 1105 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery slipped 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.13.