Posted at 11 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) -1.9%, -1.7% previous
•UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) -1.1%, -1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.393% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.766% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.739% previous
•15:00 US CB Nov Employment Trends Index 114.16 previous
•16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.60% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.190% previous
•16:30 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.701% previous
•18:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•18:00 US 10-Year Note Auction 4.519% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Relases(GMT)
•20:10 EU ECB McCaul Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Monday as investors prepared for crucial U.S. inflation data and awaited interest rate decisions from major global central banks. The spotlight for investors this week centers on the release of U.S. inflation data for November, scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are slated to announce their respective rate decisions on Thursday. The euro was last flat at $1.0761, not too far from Friday's more than three-week low of $1.0724. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0776(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.080(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0742(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against dollar on Monday as investors awaited a series of central bank meetings and the release of economic data scheduled for this week. The upcoming focus shifts to major central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), U.S. Federal Reserve, and European Central Bank, set to disclose their monetary policy decisions this week. Expectations indicate that all three central banks will maintain rates at their current levels. Additionally, significant attention will be on the release of UK employment figures, inflation reports across the eurozone, and November's consumer price data from the United States, which are anticipated to draw considerable interest from investors. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2627 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2525 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2444(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as investors looked ahead of a week jam-packed with global economic data releases. The main focus now is on the November U.S. consumer price report, which is due on Tuesday and may provide additional hints about a rate cut before the Fed's announcement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday. This week, the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates at 5.25%–5.50%. On Thursday, policy meetings are also scheduled by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Swiss National Bank. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8824(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8889(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8776(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8751(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen following a report indicating that the Bank of Japan perceived minimal necessity to cease negative interest rates in December. Bloomberg report indicated that Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, as per informed sources, have not observed adequate evidence supporting robust wage growth to warrant terminating its extremely accommodating monetary policy this month. The US dollar gained 0.78% to close at 146.08 yen, having risen as high as 146.46 yen.The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six other currencies, climbed by 0.15% to 104.12. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.67(50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.80(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.51(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.90(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Beginning a week packed with events, European shares were lackluster as investors braced themselves for significant U.S. inflation data and interest rate decisions from major international central banks.
(At GMT 12:41)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined on Monday due to lingering concerns about an oversupply of crude, despite efforts by OPEC+ to cut production, alongside expectations of subdued fuel demand growth in the upcoming year.
Brent crude futures fell 43 cents to $75.41 a barrel by 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 47 cents at $70.76.
Gold prices fell on Monday, weighed down by a strong US dollar, as investors await several major central bank meetings and US inflation data this week for more clarity on the interest rate path.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,993.49 per ounce, as of 0934 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $2,009.20.