Posted at 07 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Nov Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.1%,2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
•Swiss Nov Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.1%,2.0% previous
•German Oct Industrial Production (YoY) -3.38% ,-3.86% previous
•UK Nov Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.5% ,0.3% forecast,1.1% previous
•French Oct Trade Balance -8.6B,-8.5B forecast,-8.9B previous
•French Oct French Exports 49.7B, 49.1B previous
•French Oct Imports 58.3B,58.0B previous
•French Oct French Current Account -2.90B, -2.50B previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3)-0.1%,-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q3)1.3%,1.4% forecast,1.3% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Nov Challenger Job Cuts 36.836K previous
•12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)8.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Building Permits (MoM) 2.9% forecast,-6.5% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 222K forecast,218K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,910K forecast,1,927K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.220.00K previous
•15:00 US Oct Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 2.2% previous
•15:00 US Oct Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -105B forecast,10B previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 1.3% forecast,1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks
•17:30 Canada BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle Speaks
•17:40 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered close to a three-week low as traders increased their expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting rates from March next year. Traders are betting an approximately 85% likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates during the March meeting, with nearly 150 basis points. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to set interest rates next Thursday, and it's highly probable that they will maintain the existing record high of 4%.The euro was up 0.05% at $1.0767, but remained close to lows of $1.07595 it touched on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0806(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822( (38.%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0764(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against dollar on Thursday as investor focus shifted to the U.S. weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, ahead of the more comprehensive November non-farm payroll report, expected on Friday. Meanwhile, BoE meets next week. Markets expect it to leave UK rates unchanged, but they will scrutinise the post-meeting statement for evidence of how Monetary Policy Committee members voted and the central bank outlook on inflation and growth.Futures markets show traders think UK rates could fall by around 80 basis points next year to below 4.40%, in contrast to the European Central Bank, which traders expect to implement around 140 bps in cuts, and the Federal Reserve, which could cut U.S. rates by around 120 bps. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2615(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2543 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2488(Nov 23rd low).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for clues on Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Wednesday’s data showed that U.S. private payrolls saw a smaller-than-anticipated increase in November, signaling a gradual slowdown in the labour market. The spotlight is now on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday, ahead of the Fed's updated economic and interest rate projections at their Dec. 12-13 policy meeting. The dollar index, gauging the U.S. currency against six major counterparts, remained relatively steady at 104.12 after a marginal overnight increase of 0.17%. This week, the index has climbed by 0.9%, indicating its strongest weekly performance since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8763 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8801(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8744(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8644(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined sharply against the yen on Thursday as investor expectations grew as there were mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan might indicate a departure from its extremely accommodative monetary policy in the upcoming week. The yen surged, largely triggered by comments made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. During discussions in the Japanese parliament, Ueda mentioned that the central bank has various options regarding which interest rates to focus on once it withdraws short-term borrowing costs from negative territory. The yen rose 1.5% against the dollar , its biggest one-day jump since January. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.43(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.08(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.60(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares paused their recent strong performance on Thursday, with a notable decline led by travel and leisure stocks as investor caution grew amidst concerns about a potential economic downturn following disappointing data from Germany.
(At GMT 12:18)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained on Thursday supported by a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields as investors awaited significant U.S. payrolls data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,032.90 per ounce by 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,050.20.
Oil prices showed a slight recovery on Thursday following a sharp drop to a six-month low the day before. However, investor worries persisted regarding subdued demand in both the United States and China.
Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1%, to $75.06 a barrel at 0924 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures was up 67 cents, also 1%, to $70.05 a barrel.