Posted at 07 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nov ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 103K ,130K forecast,113K previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) -1.2%,-0.9% forecast,2.2% previous
•US Imports 323.00B ,322.70B previous
• US Exports 258.80B ,261.10B previous
• US Oct Trade Balance 258.80B, -64.20B forecast ,-61.50B previous
• Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) -0.8% ,-0.6% forecast,-0.6% previous
• US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 5.2% ,4.9% forecast,3.5% previous
• Canada Oct Imports 63.01B ,64.99B previous
• Canada Oct Trade Balance 2.97B ,1.60B forecast,2.04B previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -1.354M forecast,1.609M previous
• Canada Nov Ivey PMI 54.7, 54.2 forecast,53.4 previous
• Canada Nov Ivey PMI n.s.a 53.2, 51.9 previous
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00%,5.00% forecast,5.00% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) -4.632M ,1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -4.632M,-1.354M forecast,1.609M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Oct Imports (MoM) 7.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Oct Exports (MoM) -1.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Oct Trade Balance 7.500B forecast,6.786B previous
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM)7.5% forecast, -4.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY)-6.10% forecast,-20.60% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Wednesday as markets ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates as early as March. Influential policy-maker Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday told Reuters that further interest rate hikes could be taken off the table given a remarkable fall in inflation. The ECB will set interest rates on Thursday next week and is all but certain to leave them at the current record high of 4%. Markets are now placing around an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of next year. The euro was down 0.29% to $1.0764. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0839(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0898( (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0779(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0709(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Wednesday as dollar strengthened as all eyes turned to to the more comprehensive November nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls increased by 103,000 jobs in November, below economists' expectation of 130,000. That provided fresh evidence of labor market weakness, a day after news of a drop in October job openings. Investors widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting next week and potentially start cutting rates in March.A slim majority of economists in a poll said they believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged at least until July, later than earlier thought. The pound's moves against the dollar have largely been driven by fluctuations in the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2625(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2722 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2528(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, giving back some earlier gains, as oil prices fell and investors bet that the Bank of Canada's messaging will turn less hawkish in the coming months. The Canadian central bank held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, as expected, and left the door open to another hike, saying it was still concerned about inflation while acknowledging an economic slowdown and a general easing of prices. The price of Oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell 4% to $69.42 a barrel as a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. gasoline inventories worried markets about demand. The Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3585 to the greenback , after moving in a range of 1.3550 to 1.3594.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3711 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3758 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3577 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Wednesday as investors attempted to assess the policy path of major central banks and the trajectory of slowing economic growth. Softening economic data and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have heightened expectations that the U.S. central bank has ended its interest rate hiking cycle and will begin to cut rates as soon as March. Investors got their first look at what will be a string of data on the labor market this week in the form of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, and will culminate in the government's payrolls report on Friday, which will heavily influence market views on the Fed's policy steps. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.35(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.08(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.87(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.00 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, led by miners and travel and leisure stocks, while Germany's benchmark DAX scaled a fresh all-time high on a boost from carmaker Volkswagen.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.75 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.66 percent.
U.S. stocks ended down on Wednesday, pulled lower by megacaps and energy shares as signs of a cooling jobs market reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates early next year.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.19 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.39 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.58 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Wednesday as Treasury yields eased, stabilizing after a rapid retreat from a record high hit earlier this week, while investors braced for the U.S. jobs report for further clues on how soon interest rate cuts may materialize.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,027.48 per ounce by 3:10 p.m. ET (2010 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,047.90.
Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Wednesday to their lowest settlements since June, as worries about global fuel demand mounted after U.S. data showed a larger-than-expected rise in gasoline inventories.
Brent crude futures settled down $2.90, or 3.8%, at $74.30 a barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures fell by $2.94, or 4.1%, to $69.38 a barrel.