Posted at 06 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Oct Factory Orders (MoM) -3.7%,0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•French Nov IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 44.6,41.0 previous
•Italian Nov IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 52.9,51.8 previous
• German Nov IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 36.2,38.3 previous
• EU Nov M2 Money Supply (MoM) 43.4, 42.7 previous
•UK Nov Construction PMI (Nov)45.5,46.3 forecast,45.6 previous
• EU Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast-0.3% previous
• EU Oct Retail Sales (YoY) -1.2%,-1.1% forecast,-2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 US Nov ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 130K forecast,113K previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) -0.9% forecast,2.2% previous
•13:30 US Imports 322.70B previous
•13:30 US Exports261.10B previous
•13:30 US Oct Trade Balance -64.20B forecast ,-61.50B previous
•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) -0.6% forecast,-0.6% previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 4.9% forecast,3.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Imports 64.99B previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Trade Balance 1.60B forecast,2.04B previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.354M forecast,1.609M previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.854M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:35 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•15:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•15:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast,5.00% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Wednesday as markets ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates as early as March. Influential policy-maker Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday told Reuters that further interest rate hikes could be taken off the table given a remarkable fall in inflation. The ECB will set interest rates on Thursday next week and is all but certain to leave them at the current record high of 4%. Markets are now placing around an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of next year. The euro was down 0.2% against the dollar at a three-week low of $1.0773. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0839(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0898( (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0779(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0709(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Wednesday as dollar strengthened as all eyes turned to U.S. employment data, with the November ADP National Employment figures due later in the day, leading up to the more comprehensive November nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that interest rates in Britain will need to stay at current levels for some time and the Bank is vigilant to financial stability risks that might arise from that. The pound's moves against the dollar have largely been driven by fluctuations in the greenback. Markets are currently almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut from the European Central Bank in March next year, while not pricing in a Bank of England rate cut until June .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2625(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2722 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2528(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors waiting for a read of U.S. private sector job growth later in the day. The ADP survey of U.S. private sector employment is forecast to show a rise of 130,000 in November, according to a poll. With markets all but certain the Fed's next move is a cut, dovish rhetoric from European Central Bank officials and the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold policy steady on Tuesday have stoked bets for a peak in rates globally. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude on Wednesday as well.That has supported the U.S. currency's rebound from last week's nearly four-month low, with the U.S. dollar index steady around 104.00 on Wednesday, compared with a trough of 102.46 a week ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8771 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8798(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8744(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8671(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as investors attempted to assess the policy path of major central banks and the trajectory of slowing economic growth. Softening economic data and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have heightened expectations that the U.S. central bank has ended its interest rate hiking cycle and will begin to cut rates as soon as March. Investors got their first look at what will be a string of data on the labor market this week in the form of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, and will culminate in the government's payrolls report on Friday, which will heavily influence market views on the Fed's policy steps. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.35(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.08(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.87(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.00 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Wednesday on rising bets of a peak in global interest rates, led by miners riding on higher metal prices, while Germany's benchmark DAX scaled a fresh all-time high..
(At GMT 12:57 )UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.38 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday buoyed by lower bond yields, while investors awaited for a crucial U.S. employment report that could set the tone for Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,022.39 per ounce by 1038 GMT. U.S. gold futures also gained 0.2% to $2,039.90.
Oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday, as investors weighed the effectiveness of an extension in OPEC+ cuts in tightening supply against a worsening demand outlook in China.
Brent crude futures fell 63 cents, or 0.82%, to $76.57 a barrel by 1211 GMT. U.S. WTI crude futures fell by 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.74 a barrel.