Posted at 05 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Oct Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%,0.2 forecast,-0.5% previous
• Spanish Oct Industrial Production (YoY) -1.5% ,-1.7% forecast,-1.4% previous
• Spanish Nov Services PMI 51.0,51.5 forecast,51.1 previous
•Italian Nov Composite PMI 48.1 forecast, 47.0 previous
•Italian Nov Services PMI 49.5,48.2 forecast,47.7 previous
•French Nov S&P Global Composite PMI 44.6,44.5 forecast,44.6 previous
•French Nov French Services PMI 45.4,45.3 forecast,45.2 previous
•German Nov Services PMI 49.6,48.7 forecast,48.2 previous
•German Nov Composite PMI 47.8,47.1 forecast,45.9 previous
•EU Nov S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6,47.1 forecast, 46.5 previous
•EU Nov Services PMI 48.7,48.2 forecast, 47.8 previous
•UK New Passenger Cars Registration 156,525.0, 153,529.0 previous
•UK Nov Composite PMI 50.7, 50.1 forecast, 48.7 previous
•UK Nov Services PMI 50.9, 50.5 forecast, 49.5 previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 6.3% previous
•14:45 US Nov Services PMI 50.8 forecast,50.6 previous
•14:45 US Nov S&P Global Composite PMI 50.7 forecast,50.7 previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.0% previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales 15.50M previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.2 forecast,44.5 previous
•15:00 US Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.1 previous
•15:00 US Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.0 forecast,51.8 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment forecast,50.2previous
•15:00 US Oct JOLTs Job Openings 9.300M forecast,9.553M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday as dovish comments from the ECB weighed on euro. European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel, who said in an interview with Reuters that interest rate hikes were off the table, given the recent remarkable fall in inflation. The euro has lost 1.34% since then and the data was enough to persuade ECB board member Schnabel to change her stance on rate cuts. A month ago, she had insisted hikes must remain an option.The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.082 and down 0.1% against the pound at 85.72 pence.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0836(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0878( (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0731(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Tuesday as dollar ticked higher ahead of key economic indicators later this week. Investors are awaiting U.S. employment data this week, with the October JOLTS number due later in the day, along with the November ADP National Employment and the nonfarm payrolls report for November due later in the week. The pound was down 0.1% against the U.S. dollar, which regained some ground on Tuesday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2746 (30th Aug high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2607 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2532(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Tuesday ahead of a flurry of employment data that could upend investor expectations for the interest rate outlook. Investors are keenly awaiting Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November. But before then, the monthly JOLTS report - which captures monthly hirings and firings - lands on Tuesday and the private-sector ADP survey is due on Wednesday. Traders have priced in at least 125 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, with a good chance of 50 bps by June, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8781 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8790(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8668(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8603(July 26th low)
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Tuesday as investors awaited more U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. The focus now shifts to the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday. U.S. job openings data is due at 1530 GMT, and the week's most important data release, U.S. non farm payrolls data, which last month showed signs of a slowdown in the job market, will be published on Friday. Rate cuts are expected in the U.S. with traders seeing 50 basis points of cuts as more likely than not by June. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.05(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.35(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.18 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks were muted on Tuesday as gains in energy shares offset a drop in miners and healthcare, while investors focused on a slew of economic data during the day for insights into the global monetary policy outlook.
(At GMT 13:18)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.41 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, trading $100 below the record high level hit in the last session, as the dollar held firm and investors awaited more U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,024.30 per ounce by 1200 GMT. Bullion had climbed to an all-time high of $2,135.40 on Monday, before dropping more than $100 in a single day to close 2% lower.U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,042.70.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday against a backdrop of uncertainty over voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ group of producers, tensions in the Middle East and some encouraging economic signals in Europe.
Brent crude futures edged down by 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.78 a barrel by 1301 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.83.