Posted at 05 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.393%, 3.659% previous
•French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.766% ,3.785% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.739%, 3.776% previous
•US Oct Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -6.7%, -6.7% previous
•US Oct Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.0%, 0.4% previous
•US Oct Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -1.2% ,-3.6%,0.8% previous
•US Oct Factory Orders (MoM) -3.6%, -2.6% forecast,2.8% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250%, 5.280% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.190%, 5.240% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:45 China Nov Caixin Services PMI 50.7 forecast, 50.4 previous
•01:45 China Chinese Composite PMI 50.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•03:30 Australia Dec RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast, 4.35% previous
•03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday after showed that exports from Germany unexpectedly fell in October, denting hopes that Europe's biggest economy was stabilising. German exports unexpectedly fell in October, edging down 0.2% on the previous month as demand in the European Union slumped, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. The result compared with a forecast 1.1% increase in a poll, following a strong 2.5% fall in September. Exports to EU countries shrank by 2.7% in October, the office said. Euro zone retail sales data is due on Wednesday, ahead of Chinese trade figures on Thursday. The euro ticked down 0.1% to $1.0875.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0895(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0956( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0843 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0795(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a broadly stronger dollar on Monday, as traders mulled what the Bank of England might signal at its next policy meeting amid growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will soon be cutting interest rates. Market attention has shifted in recent weeks to when the BoE will commence rate cuts. The bank rate is currently at a 15-year high of 5.25%, but with inflation starting to cool and the economy slowing, traders think rates have probably peaked.The BoE will make its next policy announcement on Dec 14, with markets almost unanimously betting on no change . Sterling was 0.2% down against the dollar at $1.26865. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2746 (30th Aug high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2659 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2625(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, pulling back from a two-month high, as investor appetite for risk declined and ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest-rate decision this week. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, extended recent declines, pressured by investor skepticism over the latest OPEC+ decision on supply cuts. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3550 to the greenback, or 73.80 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its strongest level since Sept. 29, at 1.3481.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3711 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3758 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3577 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday at the start of a busy week for economic data that will test market wagers on rate cuts from major central banks next year. Investors will keep an eye out for a slew of data this week, including eurozone's PMI, producer prices, retail sales and gross domestic product, to gauge the inflation and economic outlook.Further, the U.S. November payrolls report this week, will be on the radar following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday that bolstered expectations that key policy rates have peaked. The dollar was last down 0.33% against the yen at 147.30. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.05(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.35(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.18 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Miners and energy stocks dragged Europe's benchmark index marginally lower on Monday, hurt by weak commodity prices, after the benchmark index notched strong gains last week on escalating bets of interest rate cuts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.18 percent.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Monday, interrupting last week's rally, as investors turned cautious ahead of employment data due this week that could alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.11 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.54 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.84 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Monday on concern about a drop in demand and on continued uncertainty about the depth and duration of OPEC+ supply cuts.
Brent crude futures settled down 85 cents, or 1.08%, at $78.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished down $1.03, or 1.39%, at $73.04.
Gold fell more than 2% after hitting an all-time high on Monday, but zero-yield bullion's retreat halted above $2,000 an ounce after traders trimmed bets for the first rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in early 2024.
Spot gold slipped 2.1% to $2,026.69 per ounce by 2:31 p.m. ET (1931 GMT). Prices swung in a wide $115 range but were finally headed for their worst day since February.U.S. gold futures settled down 2.3% at $2,042.20.