Posted at 04 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Oct Exports (MoM) -0.2%,1.1% forecast,-2.4% previous
•German Oct German Imports (MoM) -1.2%,0.8% forecast,-1.7% previous
•German Oct German Trade Balance 17.8B,17.1B forecast,16.5B previous
•Swiss Nov CPI (YoY) 1.4%,1.7% forecast,1.7% previous
•Swiss Nov CPI (MoM) -0.2%,-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 German Car Registration (YoY) 4.9% previous
•13:35 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.659% previous
•13:35 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.785% previous
•13:35 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.776% previous
•15:00 US Oct Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -6.7% previous
•15:00 US Oct Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Oct Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.8% previous
•15:00 US Oct Factory Orders (MoM) -2.6% forecast,2.8% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.280% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.240% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•13:35 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday after showed that exports from Germany unexpectedly fell in October, denting hopes that Europe's biggest economy was stabilising. German exports unexpectedly fell in October, edging down 0.2% on the previous month as demand in the European Union slumped, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. The result compared with a forecast 1.1% increase in a poll, following a strong 2.5% fall in September. Exports to EU countries shrank by 2.7% in October, the office said. Euro zone retail sales data is due on Wednesday, ahead of Chinese trade figures on Thursday. The euro ticked down 0.1% to $1.0875.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0895(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0956( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0843 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0795(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Monday as dollar ticked higher as focus slowly shifted to the United States' jobs data due later in the week. The market will eye a bunch of U.S. employment data this week, with an October JOLTS number and November ADP National Employment report due during the week in the lead up to the more comprehensive November non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, edged up to 103.3, but was still not far from Friday's close. The pound dipped 0.3% against the dollar .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2746 (30th Aug high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2659 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2625(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as markets awaited employment data out of the U.S. on Friday for further hints on the interest rate path of Federal Reserve. Investors' bets that the Fed's rate-hiking cycle is over have also boosted riskier assets in financial markets.Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Fed is prepared to tighten policy further if needed, but also said that interest rates are well into restrictive territory and are slowing inflation.The key data point for investors this week is the November U.S. jobs report, which is expected to show the American economy added 180,000 jobs last month, up from 150,000 in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.87817(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8790(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8668(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8603(July 26th low)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday at the start of a busy week for economic data that will test market wagers on rate cuts from major central banks next year. Investors will keep an eye out for a slew of data this week, including eurozone's PMI, producer prices, retail sales and gross domestic product, to gauge the inflation and economic outlook.Further, the U.S. November payrolls report this week, will be on the radar following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday that bolstered expectations that key policy rates have peaked. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.05(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.35(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.18 (23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Monday after a strong week driven by aggressive bets on interest rate cuts, with drugs-to-pesticides group Bayer sliding to a more than 14-year low and weighing on the healthcare sector and Germany's benchmark index.
(At GMT 11:10)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices bolted to an all-time high above $2,100 per ounce on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks elevated traders' confidence that the U.S. central bank could cut interest rates early next year.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,085.76 per ounce by 0353 GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion surged to an all-time high of $2,111.39.
Oil prices extended declines on Monday, pressured by investor scepticism over the latest OPEC+ decision on supply cuts and uncertainty surrounding global fuel demand, though the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict limited losses.
Brent crude futures were down $1.10, or 1.4%, at $77.78 a barrel by 0921 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.09, or 1.5%, to $72.98.