Posted at 02 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Powell says risks of over- or under-tightening now balanced
•U.S. manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory
•Canada Nov Part Time Employment Change -34.7K, 20.8K previous
•Canada Nov Participation Rate 65.6% ,65.6% previous
•Canada Nov Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0%,5.0% previous
•Canada Full Employment Change 59.6K, -3.3K previous
•Canada Nov Unemployment Rate 5.8%, 5.8% forecast, 5.7% previous
•Canada Nov Employment Change 24.9K,15.0Kforecast, 17.5K previous
•Canada Nov Manufacturing PMI 47.7, 48.6 previous
•US Nov Manufacturing PMI 49.4, 49.4 forecast,50.0 previous
•US Nov ISM Manufacturing Employment 45.8, 46.8 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices 49.9, 46.2 forecast,45.1 previous
•US Nov ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 48.3, 45.5 previous
•US Nov ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.7,47.6 forecast 46.7 previous
•US Oct Construction Spending (MoM) 0.6%,0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 1.2%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as mixed economic data across Europe failed to set the tone for the euro despite dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.Powell reaffirmed the U.S. central bank's intent to be cautious in its upcoming monetary policy decisions, but also said it was too early to declare the Fed's inflation fight finished. The U.S. dollar index - which tracks the currency against six major counterparts - was last down 0.2% at 103.23 after ending November on Thursday with its weakest monthly performance in a year. It is poised to end lower for a third straight week. Following Powell's remarks, U.S. rate futures on Friday priced in a 64% chance of a rate cut by the March meeting, compared to 43% late on Thursday. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.0874. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0892(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0977( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0822 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0758(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Friday as dollar dipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further interest rate moves. The market viewed his comments as dovish, with investors pricing in expectations that the Fed is likely done raising rates. Powell's remarks came after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector remained weak in November, affirming his comments that Fed rate hikes have started to slow the economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. It was the 13th consecutive month that the PMI stayed below 50, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. Sterling was last trading at $1.2709, up 0.69% on the day .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2712(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2742(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2667 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2620(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as domestic data contributed to the recent upswing in sentiment toward the currency, showing that the economy added more jobs than expected last month. Canadian employment rose by 24,900 jobs in November, eclipsing the 15,000 gain that economists had expected, although hours worked fell and the jobless rate ticked up to 5.8%, as growth in the population continued to outpace employment growth.Separate data showed Canada's manufacturing sector contracting for a seventh straight month in November as global industrial weakness weighed on output and new orders. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.5% higher at 1.3495 to the greenback, or 74.10 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest level since Sept. 29 at 1.3488. For the week, the currency climbed 1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3614(9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3473 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3398(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Friday after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell fanned cautious optimism that the central bank was done hiking rates, while more weak data on the manufacturing sector underscored that the surprisingly robust economy remains fragile.Dollar extended declines after Powell said the risks of the Fed moving too far with rate hikes and slowing the economy more than necessary have become "more balanced" with those of not moving rapidly enough to combat high inflation. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month, below the 47.6 estimate of economists polled. It was the 13th straight month the PMI stayed below 50, which indicates contraction. The dollar dropped 0.9% to 146.74 yen . Strong resistance can be seen at 147.82 (38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.58(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.68 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.25 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Friday as investors cheered growing prospects of rate cuts on cooler-than-expected inflation prints.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.48 percent.
The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at its highest level of the year on Friday amid growing optimism the Federal Reserve was done raising U.S. interest rates and could begin to cut them next year as inflation cools.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.82 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.58 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell increased traders' confidence the U.S. central bank had completed its monetary policy tightening and could cut rates starting March.
Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069.10 per ounce by 3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). Prices were 3.4% higher so far this week, and earlier rose to $2,075.09 per ounce to beat the previous all-time high of $2,072.49 scaled in 2020.U.S. gold futures also settled 1.6% higher at a record peak of $2,089.7.
Oil prices slumped more than 2% on Friday on investor skepticism about the depth of OPEC+ supply cuts and concern about sluggish global manufacturing activity.
Brent crude futures for February settled down $1.98, or 2.45%, at $78.88 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped $1.89, or 2.49%, to $74.07 a barrel.