Posted at 01 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nov Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.2%,-0.4% forecast,0.9% previous
•UK Nov Nationwide HPI (YoY) -2.0%,-2.3% forecast,-3.3% previous
•Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.3%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.3%,0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•Italian Nov Manufacturing PMI 44.4,45.3 forecast,44.9 previous
•French Nov Manufacturing PMI 42.9,42.6 forecast,42.8 previous
•German Nov Manufacturing PMI 42.6, 42.3 forecast,40.8 previous
•EU Nov Manufacturing PMI 44.2,43.8 forecast,43.1 previous
•UK Nov Manufacturing PMI 47.2,46.7 forecast,44.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Nov Part Time Employment Change 20.8K previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Participation Rate 65.6% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change -3.3K previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Unemployment Rate 5.8% forecast, 5.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Employment Change 15.0K forecast, 17.5K previous
•14:30 US Oct Dallas Fed PCE 4.00% previous
•14:30 Canada Nov Manufacturing PMI 48.6 previous
•14:45 US Nov Manufacturing PMI 49.4 forecast,50.0 previous
•15:00 US Nov ISM Manufacturing Employment 46.8 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices 46.2 forecast,45.1 previous
•15:00 US Nov ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 45.5 previous
•15:00 US Nov ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.6 forecast 46.7 previous
•15:00 US Oct Construction Spending (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Relesase(GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•15:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded slightly after steep overnight losses as investors cheered growing prospects of rate cuts on cooler-than-expected inflation prints, while keeping an eye out for more economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. Another report showed U.S. jobless claims rose slightly pointing to an easing labour market and investors will be closely watching Powell's speech which is due at 1600 GMT.Traders have advanced their bets for a rate cut by the Fed from about an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, CME's FedWatch Tool shows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0923(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0947( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0876 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0814(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against a stronger dollar on Friday as better than expected UK manufacturing PMI supported sterling. Britain’s manufacturing sector showed further signs that it might be turning a corner in its long-running downturn but companies remained cautious and pushed up their prices, according to a survey published on Friday.The final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved for a third month in a row to 47.2 in November from 44.8 in October. The reading was also up from a preliminary November estimate of 46.7 although it remained below the 50.0 growth threshold for a 16th month in a row. The pound was last up 0.2% at $1.2628.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2673(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2732(Nov 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2601 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2581(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Friday after Swiss GDP grew in third quarter. Switzerland's economy grew by 0.3% during the third quarter, the government said on Friday, as the service sector helped offset stagnating manufacturing growth.The rate adjusted for sporting events was up from the flat development in gross domestic product in the previous April to June period, and was better than the 0.1% forecast in a poll.Year on year, the Swiss economy grew 0.9%, stronger than the 0.5% forecast. Switzerland's November manufacturing purchasing managers' index remained below the government's threshold of 50 for the eleventh month in a row, rising to 42.1 points, as production kept on contracting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8774(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8804(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8719(Nov 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8689 (23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as investors looked ahead to a talk later in the day by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Softer inflation data in both the United States and the eurozone on Thursday reinforced expectations that both central banks might be done raising interest rates in their battle against price rises and led traders to bet on earlier cuts next year.Investors will have their sights trained on a talk due to be given by the Fed's Powell later on Friday for any clues about the future path of interest rates in the U.S. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.44(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.58(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.61 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.80 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Friday as investors cheered growing prospects of rate cuts on cooler-than-expected inflation prints, while keeping an eye out for more economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks.
At (GMT 13:00 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.65 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.65 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set for a third straight weekly gain after data showing easing inflation raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon start cutting interest rates, with Chair Jerome Powell's speech later on Friday in focus.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,048.36 per ounce by 0932 GMT, up about 2.3% for the week so far. The metal rose $60 in November in its second straight monthly gain.U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 0.6% to $2,068.50.
Oil prices were broadly steady on Friday following a 2% drop on Thursday, with the market seemingly unconvinced that the latest round of production cuts by the OPEC+ coalition will be able to lift prices out of their recent slump.
Brent crude futures for February rose 22 cents, or 0.27%, to $81.08 a barrel by 1058 GMT on their first day as the front-month Ice Brent contract.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.41%, to $76.27.