Posted at 01 December 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.3% ,0.0% previous
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q3) 1.80%, 0.70% previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3) -1.1%, 0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Canada Oct Personal Income (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•Canada Oct Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•Canada Oct Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.2%,0.4% previous
•Canada Oct PCE price index (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Oct PCE Price index (YoY) 3.0%,3.0% forecast,3.4% previous
•US Oct Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Oct Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.5%,3.5%forecast,3.7% previous
•Canada Sep GDP (MoM) 0.1% ,0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•Canada Sep Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.00%, 4.15% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 218K,220K forecast,209K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,927K,1,872K forecast,1,840K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 220.00K,220.00K previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) 0.2%,0.0% previous
•US Nov Chicago PMI 55.8, 45.4 forecast,44.0 previous
•US Oct Pending Home Sales (MoM) -1.5%, -2.0% forecast,1.1% previous
•US Oct Pending Home Sales Index 71.4, 72.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:45 China Nov Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast, 49.5 previous
•04:00 New Oct Zealand M3 Money Supply 403.4B previous
•05:30 Australia Commodity Prices (YoY) -16.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Thursday after euro zone inflation eased by more than forecast this month. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. On Wednesday it hit its highest level since August at $1.1017.Markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut from the ECB by April, while around 115 basis points of easing is priced by the end of next year. The euro last changed hands at $1.0889 against the dollar, down 0.7% . It is still poised to show a monthly gain of 3%, the largest since November 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0940(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against dollar on Thursday as dollar shrugging off data showing signs the U.S. economy is slowing. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3% in October from a year ago, moderating from a three-month string of 3.4% readings, though still above the Fed's 2% target, bolstering bets of early rate cut. Meanwhile, Bank of England interest rate-setter Megan Greene said interest rates might have to stay high for an extended period and she was more worried about signs that inflation could be persistently high than some data suggesting the economy is in a downturn. The pound was last trading against the dollar at 1.2640, just below the near three-month high of $1.2733 reached on Wednesday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2711(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2732(Oct 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2618 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2606(9DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against all the other G10 currencies on Thursday as domestic data showed the economy stumbling but likely by not enough to advance the case for an early start to Bank of Canada interest rate cuts.The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession after a sharp upward revision to the previous quarter, while GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3572 to the greenback, or 73.68 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3553 to 1.3626. On Wednesday, it touched its strongest intraday level in two months at 1.3539. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3575(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3599(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3531 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3496(Sep 18thth low).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as investors digested reports that showed U.S. inflation continued to moderate in October and jobless claims rose in the latest week suggesting a slowing labor market.Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after climbing 0.4% in September. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 3.0%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and followed a 3.4% advance in September.Meanwhile Fed policymakers offered mixed messages with pushbacks on investor bets for a quick pivot to rate cuts. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.98(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.74(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.61 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.00(Psychological level ).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a more than two-month high on Thursday, boosted by energy and financials, while investors geared up for key inflation prints from the United States and euro zone to back expectations that global interest rates have peaked.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.41percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.59 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level since January 2022 as investors crossed the finish line of a banner month for stocks and viewed cooling inflation data as a harbinger of easing Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.47 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.38 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.23 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday but remained on track for a second straight monthly gain as expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates enhanced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $2,036.47 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT) after hitting a near seven-month peak in the previous session. Prices have gained 2.7% so far this month.U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2,057.2.
Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Thursday after OPEC+ producers agreed to voluntary oil output cuts for the first quarter next year that fell short of market expectations.
Brent crude futures for January settled 27 cents, or 0.3%, lower to expire at $82.83 a barrel, and a 5.2% loss for the month. The February contract , which begins trading as the front month on Friday, fell $2.00, or 2.4%, to $80.86.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.90, or 2.4%, to $75.96, and down 6.2% in November.