Posted at 30 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Oct Retail Sales (YoY) -0.1%,-2.0% forecast,-4.3% previous
•Swiss Oct Retail Sales (YoY) -0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)-0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) -0.9%,-0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•French Nov CPI (MoM) -0.2% ,0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•French Nov French CPI (YoY) 3.4%,4.0% previous
•EU Oct PPI (YoY) -1.20%,-1.70% previous
• French Oct PPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.7% previous
• French HICP (MoM) -0.3%,-0.1%% forecast, 0.2% previous
• French HICP (YoY)3.8%,4.1% forecast, 4.5% previous
• French GDP (YoY) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.9% previous
•German Nov Unemployment Rate 5.9%,5.8% forecast,5.8% previous
•German Nov Unemployment n.s.a. 2.606M, 2.607M previous
•German Nov Unemployment 2.702M ,2.678M previous
•German Nov Unemployment Change 22K,22K forecast,30K previous
•EU Oct Unemployment Rate 6.5%, 6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
•EU Nov CPI (YoY) 2.4%, 2.7% forecast, 2.9% previous
•EU Nov HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 4.2%, 5.0% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) -0.6%, 0.2% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) -0.5%, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q3) 0.70% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Personal Income (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct PCE price index (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Oct PCE Price index (YoY) 3.0% forecast,3.4% previous
•13:30 US Oct Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Oct Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.5% forecast,3.7% previous
•13:30 US GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.12% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep GDP (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Sep Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.15% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast,209K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims1,872K forecast,1,840K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.220.00K previous
•13:35 Canada GDP (MoM) 0.0% previous
•14:45 US Nov Chicago PMI 45.4 forecast,44.0 previous
•15:00 US Oct Pending Home Sales (MoM) -2.0% forecast,1.1% previous
•15:00 US Oct Pending Home Sales Index 72.6 previous
Looking ahead Events And Other Release (GMT)
•13:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:45 EU ECB's Enria Speaks
•14:05 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•14:15 EU ECB McCaul Speaks
•17:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•17:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Thursday after euro zone inflation eased by more than forecast this month. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. On Wednesday it hit its highest level since August at $1.1017.Markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut from the ECB by April, while around 115 basis points of easing is priced by the end of next year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0978(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0909 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0890 (14DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against a stronger dollar on Thursday as dollar strengthened ahead of inflation data reading in the United States. Focus would remain on a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report in the United States - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - due later in the day.On the domestic watchlist, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene will be on a speaking assignment later in the day. By 12:10 GMT, the pound was down 0.41 percent against the dollar at $1.2641, just below the near three-month high of $1.2644 reached on Monday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2711(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2732(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2651 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday investors waited for an inflation data reading in the United States. Spotlight will firmly be on crucial personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index - the Fed's targeted measure of inflation. the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals including the euro, rose 0.4% to 103.25, picking up after touching 102.46 on Wednesday, its lowest level since Aug. 11.The index is still down around 3.2% in November, its biggest monthly fall since last November, on growing expectations the Fed will also cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8777(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8761(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8729(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as dollar rebound as investors geared up for key inflation prints from the United States. Market focus is now on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, at 1330 GMT.The dollar index extended gains against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other-currency holders. However, the greenback was still on track for its worst month in a year. Traders have now advanced bets for a rate cut by the U.S. central bank from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.98(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.74(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.61 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.00(Psychological level ).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a more than two-month high on Thursday, boosted by energy and financials, while investors geared up for key inflation prints from the United States and euro zone to back expectations that global interest rates have peaked.
At (GMT 12:46 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.62 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors awaited the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting with potential further supply cuts on the agenda.
Brent crude futures for January gained 65 cents, or 0.78%, to $83.75 a barrel by 1210 GMT. The front-month Brent contract expires later on Thursday.
Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar staged a rebound ahead of U.S. inflation data, although bullion was heading for its second monthly rise boosted by hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon.
Spot gold eased 0.2% to $2,041.19 per ounce by 0927 GMT. Bullion is up 2.8% so far this month after rising 7.3% in October.U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $2,041.70.