Posted at 27 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• EU French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.659%,3.650% previous
• EU French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.785%,3.791% previous
• EU French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.776%, 3.788% previous
• US Oct New Home Sales (MoM) -5.6%,12.3% previous
• US Oct New Home Sales 679K,721K forecast, 759K previous
• US Nov Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -19.9 ,-19.2 previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.240%, 5.230% previous
• US 2-Year Note Auction 4.887%,5.055% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.280%,5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•03:20 UK MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
•03:20 Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as investors awaiting inflation data due later this week that could affect expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024.Money markets scaled back their bets on policy rate reductions last week as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers warned about "too optimistic" bets on future cuts. Market participants expect ECB President Christine Lagarde to reiterate that the central bank is in wait-and-see mode later in the session when addressing the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. Investors will also closely monitor inflation data from Germany and the broader region this week, while also tracking the ongoing budget saga in Germany following a constitutional court ruling this month that threw Berlin's financial plans into disarray. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0932 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0890 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained for a third day on Monday and was on track for its largest monthly rise versus the dollar in a year, largely a result of investors ditching the greenback ahead of what many believe will be a rapid shift to U.S. rate cuts in 2024.Separately, in a potential longer-term boost for sterling, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a raft of foreign investments in Britain ahead of a gathering of business leaders. Meanwhile, Sunak, who is hosting global executives this week outside London in his bid to restore the country as Europe's top foreign direct investment (FDI) destination, announced 29.5 billion pounds ($36.76 billion) of private-sector investments in Britain on Monday. Sterling was last up 0.15% at $1.2624, nearing three-month highs, and was flat against the euro at 86.77 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2644(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2747(31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2590 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as the greenback posted broad-based declines and ahead of domestic economic data this week that could cement steady policy from the Bank of Canada at an upcoming policy decision. Canadian gross domestic product data is due on Thursday. It’s expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.2% in the third quarter, far below the BoC's 0.8% estimate, while data on Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate ticking up to 5.8% in November, which would be its highest level in nearly two years. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, adding modestly to its gains on Friday when data showed unexpected strength in Canadian retail sales. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3647 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3660 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3599 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3589 (Oct 12th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as greenback was weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates and could start cutting them by the first half of next year. Investors are also looking to a slew of events and data this week that could determine the future path of interest rates globally. The dollar extended losses after data showed U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in October, dropping 5.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. September's sales pace was revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped 0.2% to 103.20 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance since November 2022. The dollar fell 0.6% to 148.43 yen against the yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.63 (50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.33(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.44 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 148.02(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Monday, hurt by weakness in healthcare stocks, while real estate stocks limited losses as they were supported by sharp gains in UK property portal Rightmove.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.37 percent.
U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday, with investors taking a post-Thanksgiving pause as the holiday shopping season kicked in to high gear and retailers lured bargain hunters with Cyber Monday deals.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.16 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.20 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a six-month high on Monday as a softer dollar and expectations of a pause in the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening helped bullion consolidate above the key $2,000 an ounce level.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,012.34 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. ET (2001 GMT), after reaching its highest since May 16. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $2012.4.
Oil prices fell on Monday, with the Brent benchmark dipping below $80 a barrel as investors awaited this week's OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024.
Brent crude futures were down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $79.98 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 68 cents, or 0.9%, to $74.86. Both contracts lost $1 in early trading.