Posted at 27 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Nov Consumer Confidence -12.4,-12.6 previous
•Finnish Nov Finnish Industrial Confidence -21, -21 previous
•UK Nov CBI Distributive Trades Survey -11,-30 forecast,-36 previous
•France Jobseekers Total 2,821.4K,2,812.2K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 EU French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.650% previous
•13:55 EU French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.791% previous
•13:55 EU French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.788% previous
•14:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•15:00 US Oct New Home Sales (MoM) 12.3% previous
•15:00 US Oct New Home Sales 721K forecast, 759K previous
•15:30 US Nov Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -19.2 previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.230% previous
•16:30 US 2-Year Note Auction 5.055% previous
•18:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as investors awaiting inflation data due later this week that could affect expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024.Money markets scaled back their bets on policy rate reductions last week as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers warned about "too optimistic" bets on future cuts. Market participants expect ECB President Christine Lagarde to reiterate that the central bank is in wait-and-see mode later in the session when addressing the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. Investors will also closely monitor inflation data from Germany and the broader region this week, while also tracking the ongoing budget saga in Germany following a constitutional court ruling this month that threw Berlin's financial plans into disarray. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0964(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0932 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0890 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained for a third day on Monday and was on track for its largest monthly rise versus the dollar in a year, largely a result of investors ditching the greenback ahead of what many believe will be a rapid shift to U.S. rate cuts in 2024.Separately, in a potential longer-term boost for sterling, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a raft of foreign investments in Britain ahead of a gathering of business leaders.Sterling has gained nearly 4% versus the dollar this month. Sterling was last up 0.15% at $1.2624, nearing three-month highs, and was flat against the euro at 86.77 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2644(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2747(31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2590 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2536(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Monday as traders eyed fresh economic cues in the week ahead to determine the future path of policy rates. Traders, returning from the Thanksgiving lull late last week, continued to eye a peak in U.S. rates and turned their attention to when the first rate cuts could come, with this week's release of U.S. core PCE prices likely to offer more clues on the Fed's next steps. The dollar eased 0.1% against a basket of major currencies, hovering around a more than two-month low touched last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8780(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors awaited further clues on the outlook for inflation globally. Global focus will be on inflation data out of some of the world's biggest economies and a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. Investors' attention is on the release of revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Thursday. The latest data indicating a slowdown in U.S. inflation has increased expectations of an earlier-than-expected easing of monetary conditions by the Federal Reserve. Traders widely expect the Fed to hold rates in December, while pricing in about a 60% chance of a cut in May next year, CME's FedWatch Tool shows. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.63 (50%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.33(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.91 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 148.02(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Monday hurt by losses in energy stocks, while cautious investors awaited comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on monetary policy later in the day.
At (GMT 12:46 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a more than six-month high on Monday, firming above the $2,000 per ounce level, as a weaker dollar and expectations of an end to U.S. interest rate hikes lifted demand.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,012.33 per ounce by 1147 GMT, after reaching its highest since May 16 at $2,017.82. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.5% to $2,013.10.
Oil prices fell on Monday, with the Brent benchmark dropping below $80 a barrel as investors awaited this week's OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024.
Brent crude futures were down 91 cents, or 1.1%, at $79.67 a barrel by 1217 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $74.65.