Posted at 23 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Nov Business Survey 99,98 forecast,98 previous
•French Nov French Manufacturing PMI 42.6,43.1 forecast,42.8 previous
•French Nov French Services PMI 45.3, 45.6 forecast,45.2 previous
•French Nov French S&P Global Composite PMI 44.5,45.0 forecast,44.6 previous
•German Nov Composite PMI 47.1,46.5 forecast,45.9 previous
•German Nov German Manufacturing PMI 42.3, 41.2 forecast,40.8 previous
•German Nov German Services PMI 48.7,48.5 forecast,48.2 previous
•EU Nov Manufacturing PMI 43.8,43.4 forecast,43.1 previous
•EU Nov Services PMI 48.2,48.1 forecast,47.8 previous
•EU Nov S&P Global Composite PMI 47.1,46.9 forecast,46.5 previous
•UK Services PMI 50.5, 49.5 forecast, 49.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI 50.1, 48.7 forecast, 48.7 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 46.7, 45.0 forecast, 44.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) -2.0% previous
•21:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,815B previous
•21:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.483T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•17:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•19:30 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday for the first time this week, after data suggested the downturn in the euro zone economy may be starting to ease. The survey showed the euro zone economy is on track to contract again in the fourth quarter.The PMI covering the bloc's dominant services industry rose to 48.2 this month from 47.8, slightly above the poll estimate for 48.1, but firmly in contraction territory.Manufacturing activity, which has contracted every month since July 2022, fell again in November. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but was still below break even. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0909(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0952( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0884 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling gained against the dollar after UK business activity on Thursday showed companies reported a marginal return to growth in early November after three months of contraction. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) spanning services and manufacturing firms showed a preliminary reading of 50.1 in November.That was up from 48.7 in October, and above the 50 threshold for growth for the first time since July. Economists polled had forecast an unchanged reading of 48.7. Sterling climbed 0.5% against the dollar to $1.2560. It touched its highest of $1.2575 since Sep 6 right after the PMI data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2625 (Sep 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2506 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2491(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was little changed against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors remained on the sidelines in holiday-thinned trading and an uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate path.Investors dialled back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after data on Wednesday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week.Fed officials agreed at their last policy meeting that they would proceed "carefully" and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed on Tuesday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Thursday as Investors dialled back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after data on Wednesday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week Recent evidence of a slowing economy and disinflation in the U.S. had pushed the dollar into a three-week spell of weakness, Markets have dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024, with futures now showing a 27% chance that it cuts its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.61 (38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.37(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.92 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 148.32(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Thursday, supported by gains in energy stocks, while investors awaited minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting for clues on the region's monetary policy path.
At 12:43 (GMT) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dipped about 1% on Thursday, extending losses after postponement of an OPEC+ meeting stoked expectations that the group might not deepen output cuts next year.
Brent crude futures were down 90 cents, or about 1.1%, at $81.06 a barrel by 1143 GMT after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 86 cents, also about 1.1%, to $76.24 after dropping as much as 5% in the previous session.
Gold prices edged up on Thursday as the U.S. dollar ticked lower, but the bullion lacked the impetus to move higher as investors remained on the sidelines in holiday-thinned trading and an uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate path.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,992.36 per ounce, as of 1041 GMT, after hitting a three-week high of $2,007.29 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,993.30.