Posted at 22 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Belgium Nov Consumer Confidence -4 , -5 previous
•UK Nov CBI Industrial Trends Orders 35, -25 forecast, -26 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 220.25K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,865K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 225K forecast, 231K previous
•13:30 US Oct Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Oct Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Oct Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -3.1% forecast, 4.7% previous
•13:30 US Oct Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 5.7% previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations 56.9 forecast,59.3 previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Current Conditions 65.7 forecast,70.6 previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan Consumer Sentiment 60.4 forecast,63.8 previous
•15:00 US Nov Consumer Confidence -17.6 forecast,-17.9 previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2% forecast,3.0% previous
•15:00 US Nov Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 4.4% forecast,4.2% previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production -0.813M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.925M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.160M forecast,3.592M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:10 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as dollar found support as investors' tempered some of their earlier enthusiasm about the prospect of an end to U.S. rate hikes. Fed officials agreed they would raise interest rates only if progress in controlling inflation faltered, reiterating recent comments by policymakers that left the door open for more tightening even as markets have moved to price rate cuts from early next year The dollar index , which measures it against a basket of currencies, was 0.1% higher at 103.68, pulling away from its lowest level since the end of August at 103.17 it touched on Tuesday.The index is down about 2.8% in November and on course for its biggest monthly drop in a year. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0919(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0973( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0901 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0889 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against a stronger dollar on Wednesday, as traders gear up for finance minister Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement budget update due early afternoon.Hunt is expected to announce tax cuts for businesses as he tries to boost Britain's sluggish economy, although any major policy announcements are likely to come closer to an election expected next year, according to analysts. On Tuesday, the pound hit a 10-week high against a weaker dollar, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated the central bank's stance on interest rates did not need changing. At 1053 GMT, sterling was down 0.12% against the dollar at $1.2523 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2554(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2578 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2491 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors' tempered some of their earlier enthusiasm about the prospect of an end to U.S. rate hikes. The Fed minutes showed policymakers pledged to "proceed carefully" from here, which traders did not interpret as new information, and also contained no confirmation that policymakers had ruled out more rate hikes. The dollar index was up 0.25% on the day, rising for a second consecutive session, but is still on track for its worst monthly performance in a year, with a drop of 2.7%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday after Fed officials agreed at their last policy meeting that they would proceed carefully and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed.Markets are confident there won't be another rate hike, and are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by May, according to CME's FedWatch Tool The dollar rose 0.1% against its rivals, but held near a more than 2-1/2-month low touched on Tuesday. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.92 (38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.11 (50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.43(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a two-month high on Wednesday, led by real estate stocks, with software firm Sage jumping to a record high following a strong annual operating profit and share buy back plan.
At (GMT) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle kept the dollar and U.S. bond yields subdued.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,000.38 per ounce as of 1201 GMT, after rising as high as $2006.19 earlier in the session. Bullion scaled a three-week high of $2,007.29 on Tuesday.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday in quiet pre-U.S. Thanksgiving holiday trading, as the market awaited news on output cuts from the OPEC+ producers group and looked for confirmation of a sharp build-up in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude futures fell 95 cents to $81.50 a barrel by 1149 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 92 cents to $76.85. Both benchmarks had lost $1 in earlier trading.