Posted at 22 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Oct Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.6%, 3.6% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Canada Oct New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Canada Oct Chicago Fed National Activity -0.49,0.02 previous
•Canada Oct Median CPI (YoY) 3.5%, 3.6% forecast,3.8% previous
•Canada Oct Core CPI (YoY) 2.7%, 2.8% previous
•Canada Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Canada Oct Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%, -0.1% previous
•Canada Oct Common CPI (YoY) 4.2% , 4.3% forecast,4.4% previous
• Canada Oct CPI (YoY) 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.8% previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 3.4%,3.0% previous
•GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.0%, -0.7% previous
•US Oct Existing Home Sales (MoM) -4.1%, -2.0% previous
•US Oct Existing Home Sales 3.79M, 3.90M forecast,3.96M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:35 Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday after European Central Bank officials pushed back against expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2024.ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said late on Monday it was premature to talk about rate cuts, while Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that rates have reached a plateau where they will likely remain for the next few quarters. The ECB likely ended its tightening cycle in October, keeping the deposit rate at a record high 4.00% after an unprecedented tightening cycle that began when the deposit rate was negative in July last year.Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0985(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychgological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound got a modest lift on Tuesday after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his government would turn to cutting tax after a fall in inflation. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who is expected to call an election next year said on Monday that his attention was turning to tax cuts to help the stagnant economy after a slowing in Britain's high inflation rate, speaking ahead of this week's budget update when finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce how he will speed up the stagnant economy. Hunt said over the weekend he would not deliver tax cuts that might fuel inflation. Official forecasts due on Wednesday are expected to show he has more room for giveaways before running into trouble with fiscal rules than in his annual budget published in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2554(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2597 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2495 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464(5DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday but the move was limited as domestic data showed inflation easing and investors weighed minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Canada’s annual inflation rate eased more than expected to 3.1% in October and core inflation measures edged down to their lowest levels in about two years. Money markets have nearly fully discounted a BoC rate cut by April and see three cuts in total next year. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.37 to the greenback, or 72.99 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3682 to 1.3731.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3740(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3764(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3680(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3624 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting showed the U.S. central bank was likely to maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates for some time.Fed officials said inflation remained well above their target but noted that rates would only need to be raised if new data showed insufficient progress on reducing price pressures. Investors are gauging when the Fed may begin to cut rates, pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a cut of at least 25 basis points by May, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, edging up from about 58% on Monday. The dollar pared declines against the Japanese currency , which last strengthened 0.0.1% to 148.35 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.80(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.62(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.21 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.88 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Tuesday as declines in telecom and energy stocks offset gains in materials, while investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.24percent.
U.S. stocks dipped on Tuesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting showed the central bank is "in a position to proceed carefully.".
Dow Jones closed down by 0.18% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.20% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.59% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday after a poorly received auction of 10-year inflation-protected notes and minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting three weeks ago did not reveal any new policy decisions.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 0.3 basis points to 4.572%.Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -47.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one.
Commodities Recap
Gold hurdled over the $2,000 mark on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve had reached an interest rate peak after minutes from the U.S. central bank's latest meeting anchored a cautious approach to more hikes.
Spot gold gained 1.2% to $1,999.92 per ounce by 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT), after earlier hitting a three-week peak at $2,007.29. U.S. gold futures settled 1.1% higher at $2,001.60.
Oil prices ended near flat on Tuesday after rallying for two sessions, with investors cautious ahead of Sunday's scheduled OPEC+ meeting, when the producer group may discuss deepening supply cuts due to slowing global economic growth.
Brent crude futures settled 13 cents higher at $82.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 6 cents lower at $77.77.