Posted at 21 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Labour Productivity -0.2%, 0.7% previous
•UK Oct Public Sector Net Borrowing 13.97B, 21.00B forecast, 13.53B previous
•German Oct Car Registration (MoM) -2.5%,-17.9% previous
•German Oct German Car Registration (YoY) 4.9%, -0.1% previous
•Swiss Oct Trade Balance 4.600B, 5.870B forecast,6.316B previous
•French Oct Car Registration (MoM) -2.5%, 37.6% previous
•French Oct French Car Registration (YoY) 21.9%,10.7% previous
•UK Oct Car Registration (MoM) -43.7% ,218.3% previous
•UK Oct M3 Money Supply 1,132.5B, 1,129.2B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Oct Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.6% forecast, 3.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Chicago Fed National Activity 0.02 previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Median CPI (YoY) 3.6% forecast,3.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Core CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Core CPI (MoM) -0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Common CPI (YoY) 4.3% forecast,4.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct CPI (YoY) 3.2% forecast, 3.8% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 3.0% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -0.7% previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales 3.96M previous
•15:00 US Milk Auctions 3,255.0 previous
•15:00 US Oct Existing Home Sales (MoM) -2.0% previous
•15:00 US Oct Existing Home Sales 3.90M forecast,3.96M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•17:15 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday after European Central Bank officials pushed back against expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2024.ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said late on Monday it was premature to talk about rate cuts, while Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that rates have reached a plateau where they will likely remain for the next few quarters. The ECB likely ended its tightening cycle in October, keeping the deposit rate at a record high 4.00% after an unprecedented tightening cycle that began when the deposit rate was negative in July last year.Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0985(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000( Psychgological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound got a modest lift on Tuesday after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his government would turn to cutting tax after a fall in inflation. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who is expected to call an election next year said on Monday that his attention was turning to tax cuts to help the stagnant economy after a slowing in Britain's high inflation rate, speaking ahead of this week's budget update when finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce how he will speed up the stagnant economy. Hunt said over the weekend he would not deliver tax cuts that might fuel inflation. Official forecasts due on Wednesday are expected to show he has more room for giveaways before running into trouble with fiscal rules than in his annual budget published in March. Sterling was up 0.2% at $1.253, after hitting a two-month high of $1.254. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2554(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2597 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2495 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Tuesday as greenback weakened on expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking interest rates, while investors awaited minutes from the central bank's latest meeting for further policy cues. Investor focus is now on the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, due at 1900 GMT. Signs of slowing inflation in the United States have boosted expectations that the central bank was done raising interest rates.Markets are widely expecting the Fed to leave rates unchanged in the December meeting and are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by May, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8859(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8896(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Tuesday as yen rallied for a fourth straight session as investors positioned for the possibility that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy . Global inflationary forces are finally seeping into Japan's economy after decades of falling prices, forcing investors to radically rethink their Japan bets as the Bank of Japan considers a major policy shift. The BOJ has also long supported the bond market by buying government debt to cap yields and suppress domestic borrowing costs. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy. The Japanese yen strengthened to 147.155 per dollar, lifting further away from the one-year low of 151.92 it touched last week. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.80(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.21 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 146.88 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were holding near a 5-1/2 week high on Tuesday while the dollar languished near its lowest in two-and-a-half months on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done with interest rate hikes.
(At GMT 12:32)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to an over two-week high on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar dipped on expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking interest rates, while investors awaited minutes from the central bank's latest meeting for further policy cues.
Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $1,988.39 per ounce, as of 1025 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Nov. 3 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,990.20.
Oil futures fell on Tuesday, reversing the previous day's rally, as concerns over weaker demand amid a slowing global economy outweighed the prospect of deepening supply cuts by OPEC and its allies such as Russia.
Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.96 a barrel by 0439 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $77.50 a barrel, down 33 cents, or 0.4%.