Posted at 17 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Oct Housing Starts 274.7K, 255.0K forecast, 270.5K previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) -2.0%,-1.7% previous
•US Export Price Index (YoY) -4.9%,-4.1% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 220.25K,212.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,865K, 1,847K forecast,1,834K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 231K, 220K forecast,217K previous
•US Nov Philly Fed Employment 0.8,4.0 previous
•US Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index -1.30 , -4.80 previous
•US Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid 14.80, 23.10 previous
•US Nov Philly Fed New Orders 1.3, 4.4 previous
•US Oct Import Price Index (MoM) -0.8%, -0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions -2.1, 9.2 previous
•US Oct Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.7%,-0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Oct Industrial Production (YoY) -0.6%, 0.08% previous
•US Oct Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9%, 79.4% forecast, 79.7% previous
•US Nov KC Fed Composite Index -2, -8 previous
•US Nov KC Fed Manufacturing Index -3, -8 previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,815B, 7,861B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No Significant events
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Thursday as optimism around a peak in policy tightening and eventual rate cuts stemming from softening inflation across major economies took a backseat. Through the course of the week, inflation data out of the United States and the UK reinforced hopes that their central banks were done raising rates. Focus now shifted to the euro zone’s inflation print on Friday. The euro was flat at $1.0853, having gained 2.5% in a month, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was fractionally higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0881(Nov 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0912( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0833 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0761(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Thursday after British consumer prices increased by less than forecast in October, prompting markets to bring forward their expectation for rate cuts from the Bank of England. Data showed domestic consumer inflation cooled more than expected in October as household energy prices dropped from a year ago, strengthening investor bets that the Bank of England might steer clear of further monetary tightening to protect economic growth. Investors added to their bets on BoE rate cuts next year, with three 25-basis-point reductions by December 2024 almost fully priced in. Sterling was last down 0.02% on the day at $1.2415. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2433(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2529 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2359(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2288(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, giving back some recent gains, as oil prices tumbled and the rally in equity markets lost some momentum. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, dropped to its lowest level since July 7 as investors worried about global demand following weak data from the U.S. and Asia. U.S. crude oil futures CLc1 settled 4.9% lower at $72.90 a barrel. Domestic data showed that housing starts unexpectedly rose in October, climbing 1% compared with the previous month. The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3765 to the greenback, or 72.65 U.S. cents after moving in a range of 1.3678 to 1.3776. On Wednesday, it touched its strongest intraday level since Nov. 6 at 1.3652. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3765(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3808 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3722 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3653(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Thursday after U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected last week, indicating a cooling labor market that could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in early 2024 as it tries to engineer a soft landing.The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six peers, edged higher 0.08% as a slowing U.S. economy leads the market to perceive the Fed is done raising rates. Claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Nov. 11, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week. .Strong resistance can be seen at 150.96(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.34 (38.2%fib )a break below could take the pair towards 149.57(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index fell on Thursday, dragged down by energy stocks, following a three-day run of gains on hopes for a peak in interest rate policy tightening and eventual rate cuts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.57 percent.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq managed to eke out tiny gains on Thursday while the Dow Industrial Average (.DJI) ended slightly lower with pressure from tech and retail bellwethers Cisco and Walmart after disappointing forecasts.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.13% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.12% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.07% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields hovered near two-month lows on Thursday after weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, helping cement expectations the Federal Reserve will not feel pressure to raise interest rates again to slow inflation.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 8.4 basis points at 4.453%, slightly above the two-month intraday low of 4.42% hit on Wednesday following a deal that averted a U.S. government shutdown. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 5.9 basis points at 4.633%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dropped around 5% on Thursday to their lowest in four months, as investors worried about global oil demand following weak data from the U.S. and Asia.
Brent futures settled down $3.76, or 4.6%, to $77.42 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) shed $3.76, or 4.9%, to $72.90. Both Brent and WTI earlier traded at their lowest since July 7, at $76.60 and $72.16, respectively.
old prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields dipped after U.S. weekly jobless claims increased more than expected, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hiking cycle.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,981.39 per ounce by 10:11 a.m. ET (1511 GMT). U.S. gold futures up over 1% to $1,984.60.