Posted at 16 November 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 3.245% , 3.527% previous
•Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.610%, 4.067% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 Canada Oct Housing Starts 255.0K forecast, 270.5K previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.7% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -4.1% previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.25K previous
•13:30 US Nov Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -9.0 forecast,-9.0 previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,847K forecast,1,834K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast,217K previous
•13:30 US Oct Export Price Index (MoM) -0.5% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:30 US Nov Philly Fed Employment 4.0 previous
•13:30 US Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index -4.80 previous
•13:30 US Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid 23.10 previous
•13:30 US Nov Philly Fed New Orders 4.4 previous
•13:30 US Oct Import Price Index (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:30 US Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions 9.2 previous
•14:15 US Oct Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:15 US Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 0.08% previous
•14:15 US Oct Capacity Utilization Rate 79.4% forecast, 79.7% previous
•14:15 US Oct Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•16:00 US Nov KC Fed Composite Index -8 previous
•16:00 US Nov KC Fed Manufacturing Index -8 previous
•21:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,861B previous
•21:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.360T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•14:15 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•14:25 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•15:00 US Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
•15:30 US Fed Waller Speaks
•15:35 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•15:45 UK MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Thursday as optimism around a peak in policy tightening and eventual rate cuts stemming from softening inflation across major economies took a backseat. Through the course of the week, inflation data out of the United States and the UK reinforced hopes that their central banks were done raising rates. Focus now shifted to the euro zone’s inflation print on Friday. In currencies, the euro was flat at $1.0848, having gained 2.5% in a month, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was fractionally higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0881(Nov 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0912( (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0833 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0761(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Thursday after easing inflation figures in October fuelled hopes that the Bank of England may not have to tighten monetary policy further. Data showed domestic consumer inflation cooled more than expected in October as household energy prices dropped from a year ago, strengthening investor bets that the Bank of England might steer clear of further monetary tightening to protect economic growth. Investors added to their bets on BoE rate cuts next year, with three 25-basis-point reductions by December 2024 almost fully priced in. Sterling was last down 0.2% on the day at $1.247. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2466(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2503 (Nov 15thth high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2378(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2321(11DMA).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar held around two-week low against Swiss franc on Thursday as traders took incoming economic data as signalling the Federal Reserve will wait longer before cutting interest rates.The dollar index which tracks the U.S. currency against six other units was steady at 104.33. It gained 0.31% on Wednesday, following a 1.51% plunge the previous day its largest drop for a single trading day in a year. Traders remain certain that rates will not go higher, but have trimmed the odds for a first reduction by March to less than 1-in-4 from better than 1-in-3 a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8913(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8933(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8852(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8833(Sep 4thh low)
USD/JPY: Dollar held its ground against yen on Thursday as robust U.S. economic data clouded the outlook for when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates. U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October, pointing to slowing demand at the start of the fourth quarter that further strengthened expectations the Fed is done hiking interest rates.On Tuesday, data showed U.S. headline consumer prices were flat in October, against expectations for a 0.1% rise. Core CPI, at 0.2%, also came in below a forecast of 0.3% Traders widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in December and bet it will start cutting rates by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. .Strong resistance can be seen at 151.76(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.86 (11DMA)a break below could take the pair towards 150.34 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index dropped on Thursday, dragged by energy stocks, following a three-day run on optimism regarding a peak in policy tightening and eventual rate cuts.
(At GMT 12:22)UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday as the U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, amid prospects that the Federal Reserve is done with its rate hike cycle.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $1,965.08 per ounce, as of 1056 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,967.70.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as signals of higher supply from the United States met concern over lacklustre energy demand from China.
Brent futures were down 23 cents at $80.95 a barrel by 1101 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) shed 27 cents to $76.39. Both benchmarks fell more than 1.5% in the previous session.